Tough to the Finish

We had a buyer panel a couple of weeks ago, with people who'd bought their houses from us recently. I was surprised at the number of problems that came up right before, or even during, the closing. Two of the three were packed and ready to move before they knew whether or not the other party would be able to perform.

While we in the business all know that the transaction doesn't end with the signing of the contract, even we didn't quite realize that the obstacles in a sale are moving farther and farther down the pipeline. It used to be that the big hurdle was getting the contract signed. Then it was the inspection, and renegotiations after that. Next came the appraisal. Now it's the financing, which is often so problematic that the contingencies last right up until the closing day.

The good news is that all the transactions went through, even though one poor buyer started with six weeks to move and ended with two days. It was also good news that no one thought that his or her Realtor was to blame. It shows, however, that moving (no matter what we tell you) is hard to make easy. Leave plenty of time; expect things to go wrong; don't sweat the small stuff; and keep a sense of humor!

Compromising

With the recent spate of real estate activity, we were hoping to see sellers more realistic than many are. This is my chance to remind them that, given the current credit climate, it doesn't help them to extract the last dollar in the sales contract, if the home then does not appraise out. Banks are understandably cautious these days, and many people don't have extra money to put down, so they are dependent upon an appraisal that will support maximum financing. Even if they do put plan to put a little more down, buyers will likely balk at paying more than the bank's appraised value for property, particularly in a market less than robust. It's funny (well, maybe that's not the word...) how the problem in getting transactions from A to Z has moved through the process, from listing to offers to inspections to financing. Let's hope that it moves right out of the system!

I'm also wondering whether the spring market will last further into the summer, especially since it seems to rain EVERY day. We got a late start, more due to economics than weather, but often a late start means a longer season for selling. We could use the time to try to catch up to last year throughout the region.

Appraisals

Now that consumer confidence has risen back to the point it was when Lehman Brothers failed, and the spring market has begun, we're starting to see some action. The new problem is that the houses under contract are not always "appraising out". That means that, when a buyer goes to get a mortgage, how much the bank will lend depends not only upon his or her credit score and income, but on an appraisal ordered by the bank before granting the loan. Most banks have an approved list of independent appraisers, who are sent out to examine properties with mortgage applications, and value them by comparing them to other similar properties that have recently sold. Therein lies the rub. What's a comparable property? What if nothing nearby has recently sold? What if the appraiser is from out of the area, and doesn't know which streets or neighborhoods are considered prime? All of those factors come into play, and sometimes the appraiser goes back to the bank with a value far below the sales price, even when there have been multiple offers of around the same amount on the property (which almost guarantees that the sales price is at least very close to the true value, since no buyer knows what another is offering).

When that happens, one of three things usually occurs: the bank orders another appraisal, which differs, and its internal processes allow the loan to go forward at the requested amount; the buyer backs out, due to inability to get a mortgage, and the property goes back on the market; or the parties renegotiate the sales price downward. In the current market, any of the three can happen. On a hot property, the first alternative is most likely. If the buyer does back out, it often sells again just as quickly. As Realtors, we hate to see the sale fall through, in part because someone looking won't necessarily know why it's back on the market, and it may decrease the desirability of the property (of course, to be honest, it also means that we are selling it twice for the same fee). This is particularly infuriating when we believe that the appraiser made a mistake. Some banks are more interested than others in taking a second look, and often local banks are more confident of values within their smaller footprint.

Whatever happens, it's just another bump along the road of selling property in today's market.

The Mark-to-Market Rule

You may have been reading about the mark-to-market rule in connection with the travails of the banking world. It applies to real estate in a very unfortunate way, which helps to explain why appraisals are so problematic these days.

Very simply, mark-to-market means that the value of an asset should be governed by what other similar assets are worth. Since most homes are only valued when they are sold, or refinanced, most people would expect to be unaffected by changes in valuation when they are not in the process of selling. However, the current focus on "stress testing" banks, and the influx of the TARP money, has caused regulators to take a new look at the revaluation of assets already on the books of those banks, and revalue them based on the basis of recent transactions or valuations at other banks.

Let's assume that there's a house on your street that went into foreclosure, or even just got sold to a relocation company when the owner moved. Since either of those scenarios would favor a quick sale, it might well have changed hands at what you would consider a rock bottom price. The mark-to-market rule, however, would then dictate that your home is now worth what the relo company sold your neighbor's home for, at least insofar as they are comparable properties.

You can easily see how things can spiral downward from there. If you then had problems with your mortgage, your bank would be carrying the value of your home at the "new" value, making your home further underwater. If every other bank then writes down the homes they have financed on your street, pretty soon everyone is underwater on their mortgages, and the banks have way more in the way of "troubled assets". All this is true even though perhaps only one or two homes changed hands at the lower value, and maybe not even in an arm's length transaction. The next thing you know, another bank is below recommended capital requirements, and is on the endangered list. At that rate, every bank may end up on the list, when the only thing that happened is that one home in a neighborhood got sold at a bargain price. Scary, right?

Summing up 2008

As the new year begins, we're taking stock of how we ended last year. The news is not quite as bleak at H. Pearce as one might have thought. We're down a little over 15% in commissions earned from the year before. Since that takes into account that prices fell, reducing commissions due, plus that numbers of sales fell, we did very well compared to the market as a whole. One of the agents brought in a check on December 31st and told me that 2008 was her best year ever. More agents than I would have thought could say the same thing. In fact, a couple of months ago I checked an earnings report, and noted that 52% of our agents were ahead at that point of their earnings from 2007. That may have changed somewhat by the end of the year, but probably not by that much. It shows that, in this difficult market, whom you choose to sell your property matters. Good agents are more valuable than ever.

We're still waiting to see whether we made a profit as a company in 2008. It's close enough that we can't tell yet. That's good news in this economy! We look forward to making money in 2009, in part by concentrating on the things that will increase: relocation; rentals; appraisals; refinancings; and short sales, in addition to our regular business.

On another note, the running season began with a very cold and snowy Frostbite 5K in Guilford on Thursday morning. The sun was bright, but the snow wasn't all melted and the winds were whipping across the Guilford fairgrounds and the town dock, so all the times were slow. Well over 300 people braved the elements, though. Joel Galvin represented H. Pearce with his wife, Nan, as they helped to man the Guilford Rotary benefit race.