I agree with Nelly

Nelly's comment about the weather and 2009 rings true here in Guilford, where the wind is whipping around the house at gusts, they say on the news, up to 60 mph! It's been so windy this winter so far that I'm beginning to think it has something to do with the economy, like the dust storms in the 30s. It feels like winter everywhere. I'm raising my glass tonight to a better '09, a healthier real estate market, and good health and prosperity for all our associates, employees, clients, and friends.

2009 Can't Come Too Soon

We real estaters are eagerly awaiting the drop of the ball in Times Square, so that the page can turn from 2008 to 2009, when we fervently hope that consumers will start buying real estate again. On my run this morning, I was explaining to one of my friends that it DOES make sense to trade up, since he will save more on the new house than he will "lose" selling the old one in this market. When will people stop putting their lives on hold? Of course, I'm biased.

I've been thinking a lot about consumer behavior over the past few days. We went to see Frost/Nixon in the Connecticut Post Mall, and discovered that the world is indeed still flocking to malls, or at least they were there, searching for bargains, on the day after Christmas. Movies seem to be attracting crowds, as we've seen on our movie binge after Christmas. In addition to Frost/Nixon, we saw Milk and Doubt. Of the three, Milk stands out as an amazing film; of course, I did see the play versions of the other two, so the suspense wasn't there. We saw all those movies after seeing several plays in a row at the start of the month. We loved A Civil War Christmas at Long Wharf Theatre, Rough Crossing at Yale Rep, and Mamma Mia at the Shubert, plus I also enjoyed Sister's Christmas Catechism at Long Wharf. It's amazing to be able to live in a small city like New Haven and see such a broad diversity of great theater. A Civil War Christmas, in particular, I expect to see popping up all over the country in the next few years--but we saw it here first!

According to other friends, liquor is selling, beauty salons are doing well, and restaurants seem to be holding their own. The last fact really puzzles me, and maybe it's not true. It seems as though eating out would be the first luxury to go, before you stop buying cars and clothes. I went into a clothing chain store yesterday, and the clothes seem to be selling for less than the cloth alone would cost. I'm glad that all you need to run is a pair of sneakers!

OK, Enough Snow!

Well, we were waiting for the snow and we got it! Once the snow started on Friday, it came down so fast that going home was an adventure. I tried to dig out the car closest to the bottom of the driveway so I could go to yoga on Saturday morning, but couldn't do it. Saturday night, all four of us took that bottom car to a party in Norwalk, and ended up pushing it off the driveway at midnight that night. Sunday was another day when none of us went anywhere; there is a downside to living in the highest-up house on Long Island Sound in Connecticut! We're 85 feet above sea level, and the water is right at the bottom of our driveway. If we miss the road by much, we're toast. Our plowing company had gone out of business since last winter, but hadn't bothered to tell us, so a BIG thank you to George Sanders of West Lake Landscaping, who saved the day (or night) by plowing us out on Saturday night. In the interim, we missed a couple of parties, but no days of work. Nature becomes much more important when you live so close to the water. When it's not snow or ice, it's flooding on Old Quarry Road or Route 146.

All that ice means that I haven't been running, either. I can't wait to get out there again! I'm just too clumsy to take the risk of falling. All those Christmas cookies and no exercise is not a good combination, though.

Our New York Times did come on all those days, however, and I got to read about Carl Icahn's suit against Realogy. Realogy is the parent corporation of Coldwell Banker, C21, Sotheby's, ERA, and CB Commercial. They have a LOT of debt, and they were trying to restructure by replacing the debt people already held with less debt of a higher caliber. Carl Icahn didn't like that, and the court agreed with him. It may be tough to be an independent company in this market, but at least we don't have billions of dollars of debt. Now they're looking for another way to restructure. Maybe they'll start by spending only what they have to spend--there's a novel idea!

A snowy weekend

I'm sitting in my office waiting for the snow to begin. The first big snow of the season always leads to cancellations and traffic, but little real estate activity. Most of our activity this week has been in the form of office parties. Spirits have been surprisingly good, although maybe it's due to the spirits consumed! We've had many toasts to a better 2009.

What I am seeing, however, is that those listings that our offices collectively think are "well priced" have been selling. From one meeting to the next, more than half of those will have gone under contract. That's very surprising, considering that it seems as though nothing is selling. I guess that's because we're only talking about 5 percent or so of all the properties we have listed. I put quotation marks around well priced because it's so hard to know what that means now. Even if a seller took our advice when he or she listed it, it's probably lower now. Past sales are very little indication of what will happen today, and buyers are only signing if they perceive that they're getting a bargain. Believe it or not, there are still some multiple bid situations when that is the case. The internet provides so much information, and most buyers look at so many properties, that they know right away if they need to move quickly to lock something in before it sells to someone else. What does this mean for sellers? Your property must stand out in a sea of listings, and price is the most important factor for all but a very few.

A Sweet Surprise

Well, it's snowing, so winter must be here! It's beautiful, but I'd be willing to wait for snow until the Christmas rush is done. This week is a blur of Christmas parties, Board meetings, and holiday preparations. I don't even have our Christmas cards out yet.

One really good thing has happened this week so far, though. I was reading the Commercial Record Monday morning, and I saw that we were voted as the best statewide real estate company by readers in an online poll! I usually think that those contests are rigged, but we didn't even know that this one was going on, which made the results particularly sweet. I was also happy to see that our joint venture mortgage partner, Webster Bank, was voted as best community bank. We think so, too! What's most encouraging is that the people who would have voted in this contest, who are bankers, lawyers, and real estate professionals, understand that national firms aren't better. In fact, they seem to feel that they aren't quite as good!

Holiday Parties, Road Races & Real Estate

I've spent the weekend at a round of holiday parties, plus one of my favorite road races of the year--Christopher Martin's Run for Children. Chris opens his restaurant and collects toys from 1800 runners who then run, drink beer, and watch tattoo and T-shirt contests (I've never been around for that part; I'd have to be taller, to see over all the men who crowd into the bar!). I ran as part of Sharon Oster's Dean Team. She's the new Dean of the School of Management at Yale, and she challenged her students to beat us. She paid to charity for each kid who passed us.

Everywhere I went, I got asked about the real estate market. I'm surprised that more people aren't giving up the zero per cent yield on T bills to buy real estate instead, particularly first-time homebuyers. They will be getting a $7500 tax credit, which acts as an interest-free 15-year loan from the government, if they buy a primary residence before July. Individuals making up to $75K and couples making up to $150K are eligible for the whole credit. I'm also surprised that people aren't using their (depleted) IRA accounts to buy real estate. The rules are somewhat complicated, and different for each kind of IRA, but it's a great alternative to the nail-biting check of the Dow every day around 4 PM.

Barbara's CT Real Estate Blog

Welcome to the first posting on Barbara's Connecticut Real Estate Blog. So much is happening at warp speed in the national real estate market that it seemed like a good time to try this new medium for communicating with clients and friends. As the financial crisis deepens, I'm bringing you something new that you can read when you're up worrying in the middle of the night.

I have been in the real estate business, in one way or another, all of my life. My father started our compnay when I was a toddler, so I have 50 years of history. I've never seen anything like this before. Credit markets for commercial real estate are, whatever banks may say to the contrary, frozen. Residential buyers are sitting on the fence, waiting to see what's going to happen. Realtors are sidelined.

Despite the bad news on every front, I'd like this to have a positive aspect to it. Greater New Haven is a wonderful place to live and work. We have so many colleges and universities that our region has a plethora of cultural offerings. Our shoreline, so conveniently located right outside the city, is a tremendous boon for recreation, beauty, and lifestyle. For example, today I got to work at home all morning, because high tide washed out our road and kept me from getting past our mailbox! That used to happen once a year or so, but this fall it's happened once a month. I wonder if it's our version of the dust storms during the Depression....

That's it for now. Back later with more on our region and real estate.