Well, activity in the real estate market has certainly picked up, but it's very hard to keep the transactions together until the closing. Agents are reporting that people are looking, they're coming to open houses, they're making offers, and they're even signing contracts. After that point, it gets iffy. Inspections are problematic, but at this point the financing clause is proving the most difficult. Sometimes the buyers don't know how much they'll be asked to put down, and they don't have the cash they need. Sometimes the appraisals don't support the sales price, particularly in neighborhoods where demand is highest. Sometimes the rates or mortgage programs have changed, or the buyers don't have the qualifications they need to get the rate they thought they could. Even when the mortgage is approved, buyers can get cold feet if they know that the bank appraised the property for less than they are paying.
All in all, it proves the old adage: It isn't over til the fat lady sings.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Appraisals
Now that consumer confidence has risen back to the point it was when Lehman Brothers failed, and the spring market has begun, we're starting to see some action. The new problem is that the houses under contract are not always "appraising out". That means that, when a buyer goes to get a mortgage, how much the bank will lend depends not only upon his or her credit score and income, but on an appraisal ordered by the bank before granting the loan. Most banks have an approved list of independent appraisers, who are sent out to examine properties with mortgage applications, and value them by comparing them to other similar properties that have recently sold. Therein lies the rub. What's a comparable property? What if nothing nearby has recently sold? What if the appraiser is from out of the area, and doesn't know which streets or neighborhoods are considered prime? All of those factors come into play, and sometimes the appraiser goes back to the bank with a value far below the sales price, even when there have been multiple offers of around the same amount on the property (which almost guarantees that the sales price is at least very close to the true value, since no buyer knows what another is offering).
When that happens, one of three things usually occurs: the bank orders another appraisal, which differs, and its internal processes allow the loan to go forward at the requested amount; the buyer backs out, due to inability to get a mortgage, and the property goes back on the market; or the parties renegotiate the sales price downward. In the current market, any of the three can happen. On a hot property, the first alternative is most likely. If the buyer does back out, it often sells again just as quickly. As Realtors, we hate to see the sale fall through, in part because someone looking won't necessarily know why it's back on the market, and it may decrease the desirability of the property (of course, to be honest, it also means that we are selling it twice for the same fee). This is particularly infuriating when we believe that the appraiser made a mistake. Some banks are more interested than others in taking a second look, and often local banks are more confident of values within their smaller footprint.
Whatever happens, it's just another bump along the road of selling property in today's market.
When that happens, one of three things usually occurs: the bank orders another appraisal, which differs, and its internal processes allow the loan to go forward at the requested amount; the buyer backs out, due to inability to get a mortgage, and the property goes back on the market; or the parties renegotiate the sales price downward. In the current market, any of the three can happen. On a hot property, the first alternative is most likely. If the buyer does back out, it often sells again just as quickly. As Realtors, we hate to see the sale fall through, in part because someone looking won't necessarily know why it's back on the market, and it may decrease the desirability of the property (of course, to be honest, it also means that we are selling it twice for the same fee). This is particularly infuriating when we believe that the appraiser made a mistake. Some banks are more interested than others in taking a second look, and often local banks are more confident of values within their smaller footprint.
Whatever happens, it's just another bump along the road of selling property in today's market.
Monday, April 13, 2009
More on the Market
I just gave a press interview on the results of the first quarter in our area. Those results were dreadful. Very little sold, and what sold did so at lower prices. The activity has picked up since then, although those sales won't show up until the second quarter.
What is interesting to those of us in the business, who believe that we are bumping along the bottom, is to guess when the bump will start trending up. Units always increase before prices, and, while prices may continue to go down for a while longer, units should begin to increase. Once activity improves, pent up demand for new housing may cause houses to flood the market, as homeowners seek to trade up or down. That increase in supply will satisfy the still anemic demand for some time to come.
The lesson here is that there is a window, which has already opened in East Rock and Spring Glen, where those contrarians who seek to sell in the face of awful media reports have gotten or are getting surprising high prices. Not much was on the market, and people who needed to be in place for jobs beginning in the summer or fall, or those who needed to move for one reason or another, were competing for just a few houses. Multiple offers, many over the asking price, were common. That may change as people have more choices.
A word to the wise: He who hesitates is lost. List now.
What is interesting to those of us in the business, who believe that we are bumping along the bottom, is to guess when the bump will start trending up. Units always increase before prices, and, while prices may continue to go down for a while longer, units should begin to increase. Once activity improves, pent up demand for new housing may cause houses to flood the market, as homeowners seek to trade up or down. That increase in supply will satisfy the still anemic demand for some time to come.
The lesson here is that there is a window, which has already opened in East Rock and Spring Glen, where those contrarians who seek to sell in the face of awful media reports have gotten or are getting surprising high prices. Not much was on the market, and people who needed to be in place for jobs beginning in the summer or fall, or those who needed to move for one reason or another, were competing for just a few houses. Multiple offers, many over the asking price, were common. That may change as people have more choices.
A word to the wise: He who hesitates is lost. List now.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Underwater Mortgages and Short Sales
Recently, I read that 47% of mortgages in the City of New Haven are "underwater", which means that the home is worth less than the amount of the mortgage on it. If you can afford the monthly payments, and you are not planning to move, that may not be an issue. However, for those who cannot pay, it's important to understand that there are ways to handle the situation that are better than others.
A "short sale" is one where the sellers cannot pay off the mortgage or mortgages and liens with the proceeds of the sale. In some cases, they are able to bring money to the closing and settle the difference. In many cases, however, they cannot afford to do so. It's almost always better to tell the bank earlier rather than later. Many banks are currently offering "forbearance periods", where they are suspending foreclosure actions. When those periods expire, they will have to decide whether or not to foreclose on delinquent borrowers.
Generally, if you have the ability to pay in full with other assets, the bank will expect you to do so. If you have no ability to pay, they will usually foreclose. If you fall in the middle, and it will be a short sale, they can work with you (if you can find someone to whom you can speak) to make the process as bearable as possible. You can also give permission for your Realtor or your attorney to speak to the bank about your property. In some cases, you may be offered money to move out. In others, the bank may offer to pay the closing expenses and/or the shortfall. Their position may have more to do with the amount they are carrying on their books for your mortgage repayment (in other words, if you are delinquent they may already have written down the value of the loan on their books) and their particular capital situation than with your circumstances. If you cooperate and are reasonable, you may even be able to negotiate to some extent about how your transaction will appear on your credit record. Like many things in life, it's an art and not a science.
A "short sale" is one where the sellers cannot pay off the mortgage or mortgages and liens with the proceeds of the sale. In some cases, they are able to bring money to the closing and settle the difference. In many cases, however, they cannot afford to do so. It's almost always better to tell the bank earlier rather than later. Many banks are currently offering "forbearance periods", where they are suspending foreclosure actions. When those periods expire, they will have to decide whether or not to foreclose on delinquent borrowers.
Generally, if you have the ability to pay in full with other assets, the bank will expect you to do so. If you have no ability to pay, they will usually foreclose. If you fall in the middle, and it will be a short sale, they can work with you (if you can find someone to whom you can speak) to make the process as bearable as possible. You can also give permission for your Realtor or your attorney to speak to the bank about your property. In some cases, you may be offered money to move out. In others, the bank may offer to pay the closing expenses and/or the shortfall. Their position may have more to do with the amount they are carrying on their books for your mortgage repayment (in other words, if you are delinquent they may already have written down the value of the loan on their books) and their particular capital situation than with your circumstances. If you cooperate and are reasonable, you may even be able to negotiate to some extent about how your transaction will appear on your credit record. Like many things in life, it's an art and not a science.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Good reading
It's interesting that the best articles I've read about the foreclosure crisis have both been in The New Yorker. The first one was a couple of months ago, and was called "The Ponzi State". It was a long article about homes in Florida, and the various reasons that people ended up getting into trouble, or profiting from the trouble of others. This week, there was an article called "Cash for Keys", about a real estate agent in California who specializes in REO (real estate owned) properties being sold by banks. It does a good job of showing why it makes sense for some people to fight foreclosure, and for others to give in and turn the house over to the lender. One banker was quoted as saying that this particular agent was effective because he priced homes aggressively, thereby getting them to stand out among so many others.
Today I heard from a buyer who illustrated why the aggressive pricing policy works. He's been looking at homes in Clinton, and one just came onto the market recently in the neighborhood where several others have been languishing. It seemed to this buyer to be "a lot of house for the money, and $15,000 less than the three others nearby". He reported that there was a lot of action on this newest listing, with little to none on the more expensive ones. One might suppose that a difference of less than 5% would not deter buyers from looking at some homes and not others, but it does appear that such is the case. Sellers, take heed--you may think that you're leaving room for negotiation, but instead you may be causing buyers to leave, period.
Today I heard from a buyer who illustrated why the aggressive pricing policy works. He's been looking at homes in Clinton, and one just came onto the market recently in the neighborhood where several others have been languishing. It seemed to this buyer to be "a lot of house for the money, and $15,000 less than the three others nearby". He reported that there was a lot of action on this newest listing, with little to none on the more expensive ones. One might suppose that a difference of less than 5% would not deter buyers from looking at some homes and not others, but it does appear that such is the case. Sellers, take heed--you may think that you're leaving room for negotiation, but instead you may be causing buyers to leave, period.
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