New Year, New Attitudes

Happy New Year! It is clear from watching the stock market that investors in that area have confidence about the future. In our business, we are looking forward to the same sort of sustained rise during 2010. I just returned from Arizona, where the number of sales has gone up quite a bit from the year before, although prices continue to lag and short sales are still very common. Since we are behind Arizona on the real estate curve, we can look there to see what's down the road for us.

What they are worried about is the glut of homes that could come up for sale if owners lose interest in trying to hold on to them while values are low. Moral suasion may not be enough to convince people to continue paying on mortgages that are underwater. There have recently been a number of articles about just that--homeowners moving into rentals and spending the difference in their monthly payments on trips and consumer goods. That's not good for real estate.

We will be somewhat protected from that phenomenon in Connecticut, I believe, since whatever happens on the West Coast and in Florida will most likely cause the government to take steps to prevent the spread of anything that might impede a general economic recovery, and before it gets to us. They took prompt action in the banking crisis, and the recent extension and expansion of the tax credit for homeowners is a good indication that real estate will be treated in much the same way. In addition, since we had nowhere near the amount of speculation and building as the South and Southwest, we are not in the position of having lots of empty houses and condos to fill. Sometimes it's not bad to suffer from slower growth!

In the meantime, we should take heart in the surge of interest in real estate in Arizona and other similar markets. Investors are buying, and there is activity. I talked to one agent who said that her experience there is bearing out what I've been preaching in this blog: Those properties that are priced correctly and are in good condition are hard to get, since they receive multiple bids early on. Although there is a great deal on the market, only homes and buildings considered to be good values are moving. So, if you want to sell, be sure that you are in that category. If you want to buy, get a jump on that trend and buy before the spring market and before the tax credit expires on April 30th.

Underwater Mortgages and Short Sales

Recently, I read that 47% of mortgages in the City of New Haven are "underwater", which means that the home is worth less than the amount of the mortgage on it. If you can afford the monthly payments, and you are not planning to move, that may not be an issue. However, for those who cannot pay, it's important to understand that there are ways to handle the situation that are better than others.

A "short sale" is one where the sellers cannot pay off the mortgage or mortgages and liens with the proceeds of the sale. In some cases, they are able to bring money to the closing and settle the difference. In many cases, however, they cannot afford to do so. It's almost always better to tell the bank earlier rather than later. Many banks are currently offering "forbearance periods", where they are suspending foreclosure actions. When those periods expire, they will have to decide whether or not to foreclose on delinquent borrowers.

Generally, if you have the ability to pay in full with other assets, the bank will expect you to do so. If you have no ability to pay, they will usually foreclose. If you fall in the middle, and it will be a short sale, they can work with you (if you can find someone to whom you can speak) to make the process as bearable as possible. You can also give permission for your Realtor or your attorney to speak to the bank about your property. In some cases, you may be offered money to move out. In others, the bank may offer to pay the closing expenses and/or the shortfall. Their position may have more to do with the amount they are carrying on their books for your mortgage repayment (in other words, if you are delinquent they may already have written down the value of the loan on their books) and their particular capital situation than with your circumstances. If you cooperate and are reasonable, you may even be able to negotiate to some extent about how your transaction will appear on your credit record. Like many things in life, it's an art and not a science.