July is Sizzling!

There aren't many holiday times for real estate agents.  People tend to buy real estate when they have time, and that is often when the rest of their lives are slow.  For us, that can mean writing a contract on the hood of a car on Mother's Day, or in a kitchen on Christmas Eve.

Usually, though, we can count on the fact that, once the rush to buy and close in the spring and early summer is over, mostly by June 30th, there will be a break that can last until Labor Day.  Except for vacation-area properties, most homes are not as likely to be sold, or even shown, in the dog days of summer.  Few people choose to list their homes then, either, maybe because they'd rather be at the beach than getting property ready to show.

But not this year!  We're well into the dog days of summer, and we're cranking along at full speed still.  In my opinion, we are still catching up from the time we lost to storms, particularly the Blizzard of 2013 in February.  Closings were slow in March and April, and we're still scrambling to finish what would ordinarily have been the spring market.  And, as anyone who has been outside in the past month knows, it's not spring anymore!

What does this mean for buyers and sellers?  Sellers should reconsider holding off until Labor Day to list, and many people are doing just that.  New listings are surprisingly robust for summer. Buyers should not give in to the impulse to procrastinate.  Mortgage rates have already gone up 15%.  Prices are up in almost every part of the country, and are starting to climb on the lower end of the market here.  Don't make the mistake that so many people do, and spend your summer next year wishing that you'd bought now!

When the Heat Goes On, the Price Comes Down

As I put on my first long-sleeve shirt of the season to go running this morning, I reflected on what the changing weather means for real estate.  Although spring is the traditional listing and buying season, based on the school year schedule, Labor Day brings a bump that lasts until about Thanksgiving.  For sellers, the first time that they think about heating a home that's empty, or one that's too big, they also begin to worry about freezing pipes, snowplowing, and all the downsides of winter.  We are not unaccustomed to getting calls from sellers, who previously had been saying that they were not in a hurry and didn't have to sell, asking why there have been no offers.  At that point, they are often willing to get serious about pricing their property to move quickly.  Of course, we remind them that they have a window before winter, which is quickly disappearing.

If you are a buyer, this is when you should be serious also.  It can take longer to close during holiday season, so don't take too long to make your offers and sign your contracts.  The end of the year is rapidly approaching.  Take advantage of this time to buy a great home at a good price with a low mortgage rate!

Back Down Again?

It's quiet in our offices this month--really, really quiet. Now we're reading that the national trends say that the uptick ended in about July, which, coincidentally, is what we saw. It was far busier through July than it typically is in the summer. It was slower in August, but that is almost always true. After Labor Day, we usually see a marked increase in activity. That lasts until about Halloween, or maybe Thanksgiving, and then the buyers hibernate like bears until the spring.

We're not quite sure what to make of this latest turn of events. The stimulus program and the $8000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers were supposed to be making the phones ring. Indeed, it did, but the phones have slowed down. I can only speculate, and my guess would be that the market will not stay up until unemployment comes down. I also think that the hoopla over national health insurance has people worried about costs. Whatever the reason, it's not good.

One of the earliest CEOs of General Motors famously said that "what's good for General Motors is good for America". I would argue that the same is true of real estate. The government needs to do what it has to do in order to stimulate the real estate market at all levels, not just at the lowest end. The recovery depends upon it.

New Haven's Labor Day Road Race

I just had to do a blog entry about one of my favorite New Haven events--the annual Labor Day 20K road race. As many of you know, I'm a dedicated runner. I run lots of races all year long, but the 20K is a polestar in my running year.

First of all, my running buddy Ray Fair has a model (available on his website, http://www.aginginsports.com/), that computes an equivalent time at every age to your absolute fastest time. That gives those of us older runners a chance to improve; not in actual time, which is very difficult after a certain age and a number of running years, but in relative time. It calculates a regression line for each runner, and allows you to have a goal that incorporates aging, by giving you a factor by which you "should" slow down. Then you try to beat that time.

Yesterday was a near perfect day. It was cool at the start, breezy on Long Wharf, and sunny, but never too hot or humid. Real runners would prefer cooler weather, but, for early September, it doesn't get much better than yesterday. In addition, great weather brings out more spectators, and they always help a lot.

Therefore, many of us had good races. I didn't feel great for the first 3 or 4 miles, but, once I got into a groove, I calmed down and even picked up the pace. Although my time was not my fastest, it was my fastest in age-adjusted terms. That's always something to celebrate! I'm below my regression line for the first time ever, I think. Ray says it's because I train well, but I think it's because I had a lot of improvement and slow times in the earlier years, which brings my average time up. Whatever the reason, I'm happy.

Everyone else who came out to run or to cheer seemed happy as well. That's why it's such a great day for runners, and a great day for New Haven. And the best part? We don't need to do it again for 364 days!