Our office has just posted statistics for the third quarter of 2012, which we get from the Connecticut Multiple Listing Service, and it shows that activity is definitely improving. Sales are up almost 18% from last year, and there is increased movement in almost every town.
The median sales price was down by nearly 2%, which should caution sellers not to be greedy. Connecticut is ranked 46th in terms of price recovery from the depths of the recession. In addition, there are so many homes on the market that the absorption rate stretches out for a couple of years. For example, Guilford and Madison each have about 400 homes on the market, and each has seen about 175 sell this year so far. That means that it would take almost two years at the current rate until all properties are sold.
Now, that's more pessimistic than it ought to be. As with all markets, there are properties on the MLS that are overpriced or in poor condition or in bad locations, and many of those will expire without selling. That means that good properties, well priced, should move fairly quickly, at least in comparison to the past few years. It won't happen as quickly in the higher price ranges, because it's harder to price and market homes over a million, and there have only been about five more that have sold this year (64 in all).
In all categories, though, days on market (DOM) have declined, and market speed has increased. For a complete report, go to www.hpearce.com.
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Monday, October 8, 2012
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Women's Pay
There is a very interesting article in this morning's New York Times about the slowing of equal pay for women in the work force. The gap between men's pay and women's decreased steadily for several decades, but has now stopped, as has the entrance of more women into the workforce. There are many reasons for the persistent discrepancy, with about 9%, according to one study, being due to discrimination.
It's different in real estate. We're the original "equal pay for equal work" profession. Even when women were discriminated against in sales situations, we still paid the same amount to women for the sales they had. It may be surprising to some to know that women were once the minority in the real estate agent pool, because that dynamic has shifted completely. In fact, one of the major factors in that shift is the fact that women could go into real estate without having to work next to a man who was getting paid more for the same work. In addition, child care, which was cited in today's article as still being the cause of some of the remaining pay differential, is less of an issue in real estate, where the hours and days are flexible.
There is a downside to real estate pay, of course. You only get paid when something sells or leases. Agents receive a commission at the closing or signing, and a 1099 at the end of the year, so they are responsible for many of their own expenses and taxes. We "eat what we kill", from a compensation point of view, so not everyone can afford to enter this field, because you have to spend money while you are getting up to speed. But it's nice to know that, when you do succeed, you won't be dependent upon someone else to decide what you will earn. When you combine that with the flexibility, variety, and the satisfaction of being your own boss, we expect to see a lot more younger people--both men and women--turn to real estate as a career.
It's different in real estate. We're the original "equal pay for equal work" profession. Even when women were discriminated against in sales situations, we still paid the same amount to women for the sales they had. It may be surprising to some to know that women were once the minority in the real estate agent pool, because that dynamic has shifted completely. In fact, one of the major factors in that shift is the fact that women could go into real estate without having to work next to a man who was getting paid more for the same work. In addition, child care, which was cited in today's article as still being the cause of some of the remaining pay differential, is less of an issue in real estate, where the hours and days are flexible.
There is a downside to real estate pay, of course. You only get paid when something sells or leases. Agents receive a commission at the closing or signing, and a 1099 at the end of the year, so they are responsible for many of their own expenses and taxes. We "eat what we kill", from a compensation point of view, so not everyone can afford to enter this field, because you have to spend money while you are getting up to speed. But it's nice to know that, when you do succeed, you won't be dependent upon someone else to decide what you will earn. When you combine that with the flexibility, variety, and the satisfaction of being your own boss, we expect to see a lot more younger people--both men and women--turn to real estate as a career.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Where are the Young Real Estate Agents?
We spent a good deal of the morning brainstorming about recruiting. Nationally, and for us, the average real estate agent is in his/her late 50s. Since the market is now being driven by first-time homebuyers, and since they are mostly in their 20s and 30s, there is a disconnect between professionals and clients. Most of the agents are digital immigrants, and might have kids the same age as the buyers, so it would certainly be good to develop a pool of younger agents. Younger buyers, and sellers, have vastly different expectations about technology, about time, about how to shop for anything, and about risk.
When we thought about recruiting agents to match this profile, we realized that there are many aspects of a real estate career that would appeal to Gen Xers and Millenials. Unlike the Greatest Generation, they aren't expecting one steady career for a lifetime, so the ups and downs of a commission-based agent wouldn't necessarily trouble them. Unlike older workers, they aren't tied to an office or a standard work day--they could start at noon if they were serving sellers and buyers who shared their hours! They wouldn't be limited to two weeks of vacation every year, and their dress code would be flexible. In all those ways, it's a perfect career for a younger person. And, if their parents have to support them in this job market, as they graduate and look for work, why not enter a field where hiring--and potential--are unlimited?
When we thought about recruiting agents to match this profile, we realized that there are many aspects of a real estate career that would appeal to Gen Xers and Millenials. Unlike the Greatest Generation, they aren't expecting one steady career for a lifetime, so the ups and downs of a commission-based agent wouldn't necessarily trouble them. Unlike older workers, they aren't tied to an office or a standard work day--they could start at noon if they were serving sellers and buyers who shared their hours! They wouldn't be limited to two weeks of vacation every year, and their dress code would be flexible. In all those ways, it's a perfect career for a younger person. And, if their parents have to support them in this job market, as they graduate and look for work, why not enter a field where hiring--and potential--are unlimited?
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Lots of Cash
Many more real estate sales lately are for cash. While it's true everywhere in the country, it's particularly true in Connecticut. Can you guess the percentage of people who close with cash? If you guessed 39%, you're right!
While that seems like a lot, and it is, it makes some sense when it's so cumbersome to fill out the paperwork for a mortgage, and when the restrictions are so much tighter. I suspect that some number of those buyers later apply for, and receive, mortgages, especially with rates so low (although they're certainly not losing much in the way of interest on cash, and they don't have a great deal of stability in the stock market).
When there is no mortgage, the closings often happen much sooner. We see people closing in a couple of weeks, once all the inspections are finished. Getting a mortgage later really speeds the process up.
One tricky question, however, is how to know whether the buyer is serious and qualified, without the help of the mortgage qualification letter. It seems strange, but it's sometimes easier to believe that someone is really going to buy if they are borrowing the money, than when they say that they have it in the bank. Not a bad issue to have, I guess, but it has been arising more frequently. The danger of real damage is less, however, when the closing is quick. Nothing's perfect, but cash is king!
While that seems like a lot, and it is, it makes some sense when it's so cumbersome to fill out the paperwork for a mortgage, and when the restrictions are so much tighter. I suspect that some number of those buyers later apply for, and receive, mortgages, especially with rates so low (although they're certainly not losing much in the way of interest on cash, and they don't have a great deal of stability in the stock market).
When there is no mortgage, the closings often happen much sooner. We see people closing in a couple of weeks, once all the inspections are finished. Getting a mortgage later really speeds the process up.
One tricky question, however, is how to know whether the buyer is serious and qualified, without the help of the mortgage qualification letter. It seems strange, but it's sometimes easier to believe that someone is really going to buy if they are borrowing the money, than when they say that they have it in the bank. Not a bad issue to have, I guess, but it has been arising more frequently. The danger of real damage is less, however, when the closing is quick. Nothing's perfect, but cash is king!
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Activity Abounds
Finally, spring has sprung, and the real estate market has responded. I hear stories every day about listings that have sold in one day, listings that have not sold for two years and now have two offers in one week, listings that are having showings right and left, and buyers that are finally moving off the fence.
The market continues to be driven by first-time homebuyers, and there are still people moving here from other places that are choosing to rent before buying, but the activity is clearly on the upswing, and there is much more of a sense that things are beginning to recover. While we have more inventory than many other regions of the country, even we are seeing quick turnover in some neighborhoods and price ranges. For instance, Guilford still has 275 homes on the market, which is a 50% increase over last year, but houses are selling quickly there when they come onto MLS. East Rock in New Haven has 30 houses for sale, but one of our agents just sold one in a single day.
Have you been waiting for the market to turn so that you could buy or sell? Have you been waiting for prices to bottom out? Have you just been waiting? Wait no more. The time is now!
The market continues to be driven by first-time homebuyers, and there are still people moving here from other places that are choosing to rent before buying, but the activity is clearly on the upswing, and there is much more of a sense that things are beginning to recover. While we have more inventory than many other regions of the country, even we are seeing quick turnover in some neighborhoods and price ranges. For instance, Guilford still has 275 homes on the market, which is a 50% increase over last year, but houses are selling quickly there when they come onto MLS. East Rock in New Haven has 30 houses for sale, but one of our agents just sold one in a single day.
Have you been waiting for the market to turn so that you could buy or sell? Have you been waiting for prices to bottom out? Have you just been waiting? Wait no more. The time is now!
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
New Construction in New Haven
Around the country, there are locations with much more raw land--and therefore much more new construction--than in our region. However, we have just listed a new condominium complex on the harbor in New Haven, and we are experiencing some of the excitement that accompanies new projects in this improving real estate market.
There are 31 units listed, and 8 went on reservation as of the first weekend! Visitors to the complex, called Breakwater Bay, were blown away by the water views and expansive space of the units, which range in size from 1870 sf to 1915 square feet. All have luxurious fixtures and detailing, and the response has been so good that prices on later reservations have already risen.
New construction tells us a lot about the state of the market, since older homes can usually be gotten for less. The confidence to buy new shows that buyers believe that prices will rise. It's really nice to have that feeling again after much too long!
There are 31 units listed, and 8 went on reservation as of the first weekend! Visitors to the complex, called Breakwater Bay, were blown away by the water views and expansive space of the units, which range in size from 1870 sf to 1915 square feet. All have luxurious fixtures and detailing, and the response has been so good that prices on later reservations have already risen.
New construction tells us a lot about the state of the market, since older homes can usually be gotten for less. The confidence to buy new shows that buyers believe that prices will rise. It's really nice to have that feeling again after much too long!
Monday, January 30, 2012
Winter Weather
You might think that, in such an evolved society, with so many technological advances, weather wouldn't matter so much. But you would be wrong. Last winter, with storm after storm hitting our region, most people didn't work a full week until sometime in March. Most of us just hunkered down and waited for spring, which didn't even come early after all that snow.
This year, we've seen almost the opposite. We had that one freak snowstorm, which seemed like some kind of Ice Age event, as opposed to the start of winter, and very little since then. The first winter storm came on a Saturday morning, when many people did not have to be on the roads, and it melted quickly.
So, you may ask, how does that relate to real estate? The harsher the winter, the slower the spring market, and vice versa. People want their homes listed before the spring rush, but it's not always clear when that will be. It won't be before the streets and sidewalks are cleared. Even though a bad winter should keep people indoors, getting ready to move, it doesn't seem to work that way. Until they can come out from under blankets--either of snow or the literal kind--they don't get their homes ready to list.
Since this year has so far proven to be mild, we are anticipating that the spring market may come early. I'm writing this too early to know what the groundhog is going to do later this week, but I want to get in an early warning: Get ready before the market takes off without you, whether you are a buyer or a seller. Be ready to go when it pops. And that means, this year, that it's already time to begin.
This year, we've seen almost the opposite. We had that one freak snowstorm, which seemed like some kind of Ice Age event, as opposed to the start of winter, and very little since then. The first winter storm came on a Saturday morning, when many people did not have to be on the roads, and it melted quickly.
So, you may ask, how does that relate to real estate? The harsher the winter, the slower the spring market, and vice versa. People want their homes listed before the spring rush, but it's not always clear when that will be. It won't be before the streets and sidewalks are cleared. Even though a bad winter should keep people indoors, getting ready to move, it doesn't seem to work that way. Until they can come out from under blankets--either of snow or the literal kind--they don't get their homes ready to list.
Since this year has so far proven to be mild, we are anticipating that the spring market may come early. I'm writing this too early to know what the groundhog is going to do later this week, but I want to get in an early warning: Get ready before the market takes off without you, whether you are a buyer or a seller. Be ready to go when it pops. And that means, this year, that it's already time to begin.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Where Retail Goes, Will Real Estate Follow?
Retailers seem very happy with sales so far this holiday season. Even booksellers, according to today's New York Times, have been seeing big increases. Given the lackluster sales in the past few seasons, this seems to indicate that consumers have loosened their purse strings.
What does that mean for real estate? While the fact that someone will buy a book doesn't necessarily mean that they will buy a house, the fact that someone won't buy a book almost certainly means that they will not make a large purchase like a house. So it's a prerequisite that consumers have to feel more confidence before the real estate market will improve. Hopefully, we're almost there. Given the historic low interest rates, it's hard to believe that we haven't gotten there already. Perhaps the start of a new year will push us over into a seller's market, or at least into a balanced one.
What does that mean for real estate? While the fact that someone will buy a book doesn't necessarily mean that they will buy a house, the fact that someone won't buy a book almost certainly means that they will not make a large purchase like a house. So it's a prerequisite that consumers have to feel more confidence before the real estate market will improve. Hopefully, we're almost there. Given the historic low interest rates, it's hard to believe that we haven't gotten there already. Perhaps the start of a new year will push us over into a seller's market, or at least into a balanced one.
Monday, October 24, 2011
On the Campaign Trail
I was invited this noontime to a lunch for women business owners with Linda McMahon, the U.S. Senate candidate. We had a very nice meal at Cave a Vin, a new wine bar on State Street in New Haven. Ms. McMahon is doing a listening tour of the state to hear what problems women businesses are having in the current economic climate. Several things emerged as themes: the cost of governmental regulation compliance; taxes; health care costs; and, most of all, the sad state of the economy. The last item comes down to jobs, of course, and is most evident in what sector? You guessed it--real estate. It was surprising how much effect real estate has on the business fortunes of firms in other lines of work. Real estate matters to everyone.
It was also clear that many of the businesses represented were not making money at the present time. Some owners were not paying themselves (this was more common than I would ever have guessed). Others were retooling their firms, and their skills, to find new and different ways to attract revenues. Those in retail spoke often about the lack of disposable income among their patrons.
We didn't expect any immediate or easy answers, and we didn't get them. To her credit, Ms. McMahon made no campaign promises, took no pot shots at incumbents, and seemed really to be there to listen and learn. We all learned, and the enduring message we took away was that women needed to be cooperative and help each other succeed. That is something that men should be able to buy into as well!
It was also clear that many of the businesses represented were not making money at the present time. Some owners were not paying themselves (this was more common than I would ever have guessed). Others were retooling their firms, and their skills, to find new and different ways to attract revenues. Those in retail spoke often about the lack of disposable income among their patrons.
We didn't expect any immediate or easy answers, and we didn't get them. To her credit, Ms. McMahon made no campaign promises, took no pot shots at incumbents, and seemed really to be there to listen and learn. We all learned, and the enduring message we took away was that women needed to be cooperative and help each other succeed. That is something that men should be able to buy into as well!
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
News from Tulsa
I just got back yesterday from meeting with The Leadership Council, a group of large independent brokers from around the country. This time we met at Chenowth & Cohen in Tulsa, where growth is high and unemployment is low. Tulsa turns out to be almost in the exact center of the country geographically, both north to south and east to west, so it is home to a lot of company distribution and service centers, as well as energy companies and others. It is just approaching the million mark in population. People are moving from all different parts of the US, and many that I met had come from Texas. Boy, does it seem different from New Haven in those regards!
Tulsa has about two and a half months of housing inventory. Prices are rising, and units are growing. Like us, they have problems with mortgages and closing times, and sales are not easy. However, it's really about jobs. If people have jobs, and employees are moving into the region to work, then it's obviously easier to sell your home and buy another one, because there is a steady supply of buyers being created. In addtion, the West has ranches and open land all around, making it much simpler and cheaper for builders to add new product.
The real estate business has some characteristics in common all over, but there are some differences. They have centralized showing, so agents make one call to arrange all the properties for a buyer to see. They also have lots of listings where contact is through the owner, which seems odd to us. States with title companies owned by real estate companies are more real estate agent driven than lawyer driven. Towns and cities are farther apart, and many agents I met worked an hour or more from home. There seemed to be more concentration--one agent I met with had 159 listings! Advertising has left newspapers in many places, and you don't see the big Sunday ad sections. Everything is done on line, or directly by real estate companies.
Other practices were similar to ours, including the work ethic of agents, the changes brought by technology, and the complications of lending and governmental regulations. It's always refreshing to see both the old and the new, and to step out of the regular daily grind and view it from a distance.
Tulsa has about two and a half months of housing inventory. Prices are rising, and units are growing. Like us, they have problems with mortgages and closing times, and sales are not easy. However, it's really about jobs. If people have jobs, and employees are moving into the region to work, then it's obviously easier to sell your home and buy another one, because there is a steady supply of buyers being created. In addtion, the West has ranches and open land all around, making it much simpler and cheaper for builders to add new product.
The real estate business has some characteristics in common all over, but there are some differences. They have centralized showing, so agents make one call to arrange all the properties for a buyer to see. They also have lots of listings where contact is through the owner, which seems odd to us. States with title companies owned by real estate companies are more real estate agent driven than lawyer driven. Towns and cities are farther apart, and many agents I met worked an hour or more from home. There seemed to be more concentration--one agent I met with had 159 listings! Advertising has left newspapers in many places, and you don't see the big Sunday ad sections. Everything is done on line, or directly by real estate companies.
Other practices were similar to ours, including the work ethic of agents, the changes brought by technology, and the complications of lending and governmental regulations. It's always refreshing to see both the old and the new, and to step out of the regular daily grind and view it from a distance.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Playing the Odds
We were doing some research this week, and were startled to discover that, from January 2010 through the present date, only one-third of all listings taken have sold. That means that, for every seller who put his or her home on the market and sold it, two sellers put their homes on and nothing happened. If you add those people who haven't bothered to list their properties due to the poor selling climate, there is a big supply out there.
Since real estate agents work solely on commission, this is obviously a troubling state of affairs. We only get paid one out of every three times we list a home, and listing always used to be the guaranteed way to make money, since the percentage of buyers who look and don't buy is higher than that of sellers who don't sell. The combination is deadly.
It does prove, however, that sellers should be listening to their agents about the price and improvements necessary to attract an offer in today's market. What's the point of cleaning everything up and making plans to move, only to sit there for two years without a sale? If you do want to sell, you need to do more than just sign a listing--you actually need to have a property in the top third of all properties, in order to sell it. That's food for thought.
Since real estate agents work solely on commission, this is obviously a troubling state of affairs. We only get paid one out of every three times we list a home, and listing always used to be the guaranteed way to make money, since the percentage of buyers who look and don't buy is higher than that of sellers who don't sell. The combination is deadly.
It does prove, however, that sellers should be listening to their agents about the price and improvements necessary to attract an offer in today's market. What's the point of cleaning everything up and making plans to move, only to sit there for two years without a sale? If you do want to sell, you need to do more than just sign a listing--you actually need to have a property in the top third of all properties, in order to sell it. That's food for thought.
Monday, September 19, 2011
When the Heat Goes On, the Price Comes Down
As I put on my first long-sleeve shirt of the season to go running this morning, I reflected on what the changing weather means for real estate. Although spring is the traditional listing and buying season, based on the school year schedule, Labor Day brings a bump that lasts until about Thanksgiving. For sellers, the first time that they think about heating a home that's empty, or one that's too big, they also begin to worry about freezing pipes, snowplowing, and all the downsides of winter. We are not unaccustomed to getting calls from sellers, who previously had been saying that they were not in a hurry and didn't have to sell, asking why there have been no offers. At that point, they are often willing to get serious about pricing their property to move quickly. Of course, we remind them that they have a window before winter, which is quickly disappearing.
If you are a buyer, this is when you should be serious also. It can take longer to close during holiday season, so don't take too long to make your offers and sign your contracts. The end of the year is rapidly approaching. Take advantage of this time to buy a great home at a good price with a low mortgage rate!
If you are a buyer, this is when you should be serious also. It can take longer to close during holiday season, so don't take too long to make your offers and sign your contracts. The end of the year is rapidly approaching. Take advantage of this time to buy a great home at a good price with a low mortgage rate!
Friday, August 26, 2011
Some New Statistics
Just before the beginning of the fall selling season, it's a good idea to review some of the facts we know about the current state of real estate. We know that Guilford, for example, has twice as many homes on the market now as have been sold since the beginning of the year. By definition, that constitutes a buyer's market. We know that pricing high is almost never the way to go, because one of our agents did an analysis of a shoreline agent at another company. This second agent was known for taking listings at high prices, so we looked at what the sales results were, and the answer was striking, but not surprising. The agent who lists high sold properties at an average of 59% of the listing price, while most other agents in the same area sold their listings at over 90% of the listing price.
The final statistic comes from my smart friend in Madison, Wisconsin, whom I've mentioned before, because his market seems to be so much like ours. He studied the phenomenon of "chasing the market down", which I've blogged about previously. He looked at the selling experience of sellers who priced correctly from the start, and compared their results to those of sellers who just wanted to "test the market" or who priced their properties above what agents thought they should be for other reasons. The sellers who priced correctly from the start got 12% more for their properties in half the time.
What else do I need to say?
The final statistic comes from my smart friend in Madison, Wisconsin, whom I've mentioned before, because his market seems to be so much like ours. He studied the phenomenon of "chasing the market down", which I've blogged about previously. He looked at the selling experience of sellers who priced correctly from the start, and compared their results to those of sellers who just wanted to "test the market" or who priced their properties above what agents thought they should be for other reasons. The sellers who priced correctly from the start got 12% more for their properties in half the time.
What else do I need to say?
Monday, July 18, 2011
What's a Compelling Price?
I have often been asked lately about pricing properties to sell quickly. Since things aren't selling quickly, and not much is selling at all, it's hard to know whether price is really the issue, and whether lowering it will change the outcome. We worry sometimes that, in advising people to lower their prices and get out and move on, we are helping to reduce prices across the whole market.
That's a hard question to answer. While we clearly have an influence on prices, ultimately we don't make sellers sell or, more importantly, buyers buy. So what we've come up with to explain the phenomenon is the "compelling" price. That may not be the highest price (most likely not), and isn't arrived at by figuring out what the property is worth. It's determined by figuring out the number needed to get other people to move, and move urgently.
Think about that in your own life. If you see a sale notice, you may glance at the prices in a flyer. Sometimes you look at one and decide to wait until the price goes lower, or the season ends, or something along those lines. Every once in a while, however, you look at an offer and just know that, if you don't act soon, you won't get whatever it is. That company has discovered the compelling price. Not necessarily the lowest price--that might raise doubts about quality or value--but a great incentive to buy.
So think about the real estate you know. Is it priced compellingly?
That's a hard question to answer. While we clearly have an influence on prices, ultimately we don't make sellers sell or, more importantly, buyers buy. So what we've come up with to explain the phenomenon is the "compelling" price. That may not be the highest price (most likely not), and isn't arrived at by figuring out what the property is worth. It's determined by figuring out the number needed to get other people to move, and move urgently.
Think about that in your own life. If you see a sale notice, you may glance at the prices in a flyer. Sometimes you look at one and decide to wait until the price goes lower, or the season ends, or something along those lines. Every once in a while, however, you look at an offer and just know that, if you don't act soon, you won't get whatever it is. That company has discovered the compelling price. Not necessarily the lowest price--that might raise doubts about quality or value--but a great incentive to buy.
So think about the real estate you know. Is it priced compellingly?
Monday, July 4, 2011
Be Patriotic--Buy Some Real Estate
Happy Fourth of July! The front page of last Thursday's New York Times showed the results of a poll of Americans regarding their feelings about real estate. Not surprisingly, it indicated that a big majority of those polled believe that owning real estate is still the American dream, and that it would be their choice, even though those same people were more divided as to the safety of such an investment.
It used to be that almost everyone believed that buying a house was the best and safest thing to do with their money. Their faith in the second half of that statement has been shaken by the recent financial crisis, but the first half is undeniably still true. Even those who do not own homes believe in the mortgage deduction's importance, and hope that the primacy of real estate will remain steady.
That's good news for the future of the economy. While we realize that there is still work to be done in convincing people to put down their deposits and buy, it's clear that they wish to be convinced to act. It also seems true that they would be happy to find reasons to do so. When that's the case, it's important to find ways to get people off the fence. Once those who are not absolutely required to sell begin to do so, others will follow. The consumer confidence necessary for that isn't there right now. It's up to government, unfortunately, to find a way to make that so. Jobs have to be created, and the future needs to look a little brighter. But the underpinnings are there. The beliefs remain.
So this Fourth of July, while you are watching the fireworks and soaking up the sun, make plans to get out there soon and buy some real estate. It's the patriotic thing to do!
It used to be that almost everyone believed that buying a house was the best and safest thing to do with their money. Their faith in the second half of that statement has been shaken by the recent financial crisis, but the first half is undeniably still true. Even those who do not own homes believe in the mortgage deduction's importance, and hope that the primacy of real estate will remain steady.
That's good news for the future of the economy. While we realize that there is still work to be done in convincing people to put down their deposits and buy, it's clear that they wish to be convinced to act. It also seems true that they would be happy to find reasons to do so. When that's the case, it's important to find ways to get people off the fence. Once those who are not absolutely required to sell begin to do so, others will follow. The consumer confidence necessary for that isn't there right now. It's up to government, unfortunately, to find a way to make that so. Jobs have to be created, and the future needs to look a little brighter. But the underpinnings are there. The beliefs remain.
So this Fourth of July, while you are watching the fireworks and soaking up the sun, make plans to get out there soon and buy some real estate. It's the patriotic thing to do!
Monday, June 27, 2011
Still a Divided Market
The real estate market is more complicated than it would appear from reading the papers. There are things that are selling, and selling quickly. There are other properties that are hanging around, some without even being shown. This has been true for a while now, but it's not what people expect in a so-called "buyer's market" (read "bad real estate market").
In more traditional renditions of a buyer's market, there are not enough buyers, and so they can bid low on properties, and sellers will have to take low offers if they want to sell. It tends to be true across all segments of the market, from starter homes to mansions. In a seller's market, the opposite occurs: People who want to get a property need to move quickly and bid high, or they will lose to other, more motivated buyers.
This market has aspects of both. Many people have listed their properties a long time ago, and those places have been sitting around. They are often overlooked by agents and buyers, as they can be considered as tired, and usually as overpriced. Other places come on, attract attention right away, and sell quickly, sometimes with multiple offers. What's the difference? Sometimes it's location, or staging, or size. Sometimes there's just a buyer who needs what a seller is selling, and needs it right away. More often, however, it's perceived value. The market--that amorphous body of economic value judgment--rates the property as a good value, and that sparks interest.
All of this makes it difficult to price properties. However, the possibility of multiple bids and early interest means that it's hard to underprice in today's market, as buyers will bid the price up to where it can/should be. It's easy, unfortunately, to overprice. Many sellers look at what's on the market at the time, and place their home in the range that they feel it belongs, without distinguishing between the overpriced inventory and the value properties that are getting all the interest. And that's a big mistake. Look at what's sold, and do it with a clear eye. Then listen to your real estate agent, and get your property into the sold column. Then you can become a buyer, and use all that knowledge to get a great value!
In more traditional renditions of a buyer's market, there are not enough buyers, and so they can bid low on properties, and sellers will have to take low offers if they want to sell. It tends to be true across all segments of the market, from starter homes to mansions. In a seller's market, the opposite occurs: People who want to get a property need to move quickly and bid high, or they will lose to other, more motivated buyers.
This market has aspects of both. Many people have listed their properties a long time ago, and those places have been sitting around. They are often overlooked by agents and buyers, as they can be considered as tired, and usually as overpriced. Other places come on, attract attention right away, and sell quickly, sometimes with multiple offers. What's the difference? Sometimes it's location, or staging, or size. Sometimes there's just a buyer who needs what a seller is selling, and needs it right away. More often, however, it's perceived value. The market--that amorphous body of economic value judgment--rates the property as a good value, and that sparks interest.
All of this makes it difficult to price properties. However, the possibility of multiple bids and early interest means that it's hard to underprice in today's market, as buyers will bid the price up to where it can/should be. It's easy, unfortunately, to overprice. Many sellers look at what's on the market at the time, and place their home in the range that they feel it belongs, without distinguishing between the overpriced inventory and the value properties that are getting all the interest. And that's a big mistake. Look at what's sold, and do it with a clear eye. Then listen to your real estate agent, and get your property into the sold column. Then you can become a buyer, and use all that knowledge to get a great value!
Monday, May 30, 2011
Memorial Day Memories
Because it's Memorial Day, I've been thinking about my parents. Although my father wasn't a veteran (because he was in management at a defense plant), my mother was in the Women's Army Corps as a nurse. I've gotten a lot of requests for copies of the eulogy I gave for my father last month, which is subtitled "Nine and a Half Decades in Nine and a Half Minutes". Here it is:
I remember two things about my father’s term as President of the CT Association of Realtors. The first was that he brought the President of the United States to speak at the state convention (which almost didn’t happen because, when the advance team called our house, my sister thought it was a joke and hung up on them). The second memory is of his stump speech at Realtor dinners around the state. It spelled out REALTOR, beginning with R is for resilience, and going on to E for enthusiasm and A for attitude. In his typical double-time style, he raced to the end, leaving out a different letter each time. My mother would say, “Herb, I’m not going to drive around the state to listen to you misspell Realtor.” And he would reply “But you’re the only one who notices.” I used to think that was because they were partying and not listening, but I now realize that, if you knew my father, resilience, enthusiasm, and attitude said it all—the rest was unnecessary. I’ve spent much of this week reflecting upon what made him so special, and why everyone here has a Herb story, and I think it comes down to three gifts: a gift for life; a gift for friendship; and the power of positive thinking.
His gift for life began at birth in NYC, though the family moved to New Haven when he was a baby. His father came to work on the Yale Bowl, then started his own construction company. My father, living in North Haven, rode the streetcar to the nearest school in New Haven, stopping at the pool hall or the movie theater too often to have been a scholar. His favorite childhood memories were of driving his parents’ car through the corner of Church and Chapel when he was 14 and they were away for the weekend, and of saving up all year to go to Savin Rock for an evening. His father lost his business during the Depression, so my father went to work for A.C. Gilbert, whose paper boy he had been, for .25 cents an hour ($10 a week). He rose quickly through the ranks, and was deemed crucial to the war effort when they converted to a defense plant, having 2000 people reporting to him when he was 27. After the war, he had a very active social life before his marriage at 37—he was engaged three times, or, as he put it, three women thought they were engaged to him. One was a star in the Ice Capades, but he skated quickly away. He got a form of polio in the early 50s,and met my mother during his lengthy hospitalization. He decided to start his own business when I was a toddler and my sister was a newborn, using his severance pay to buy my mother a mink stole. He worked all the time in those early years. My sister and I remember helping him to clean the office on Saturdays and riding around in the trunk with the open house signs on Sunday. He was a whirlwind of activity—sales, charitable boards, a brief run for Congress, state delegations, and more. The best story I’ve heard in the last week was a call he made with a friend to a big company for the United Way. The man told him that everyone was human, and that we all put our pants on in the morning one leg at a time. My father said “Not me. I put both legs in at once, pull them up, and get going.” There was no time to waste. He rented a bike on his first trip to Europe rather than tour the tulip gardens, as he remarked that, if you’ve seen one tulip, you’ve seen them all. This applied to our family as well. When I graduated from law school and business school, he declined to come to graduation, stating that if you’ve seen one Harvard graduation, you’ve seen them all. This lack of sentimentality carried over into other realms. My sister’s horse was named Prince, and he painted her horse trailer “The Prince and the Pauper”. He told me that Norm and I couldn’t get married before 4 PM, since “there’s no sense in ruining a perfectly good golf day.” (note the time of this service). The only word of Spanish he learned in all their travels to their house in Spain was manana, and he didn’t like it. But he enjoyed every day to the fullest—every hamburger was the best one he ever ate, every occasion was a party (and he was the guest of honor), and there were wonderful opportunities everywhere.
He never had regrets, and he rarely looked back. One of the few times was when he told me that he’d like to find his Uncle Frank, who had emigrated to Canada. This was a few years ago, and I asked him when he had last heard from Uncle Frank. He said that it thought it was about 1920! He had every faith that we could track him down. Needless to say, Uncle Frank had died, but we found his son—my father’s first cousin—in Saskatoon. He was also forward-looking about change of all kinds. He was proud of being the first in the real estate industry to run billboards, full-page ads, radio and TV commercials. He had a car phone in 1968, when you had to go through the marine operator to place your call—totally impractical with a five-minute commute, but so typical. At the end of his life, he had a Facebook page and an IPOD shuffle (although he called it his “music box”).
Part of his exuberance was because of his gift for friendship. He loved his friends of all ages, old and new. His strong handshakes, big kisses, the spring in his step, and the twinkle in his eye will all be remembered as hallmarks of his entrances. The phrase “comfortable in his own skin” probably wasn’t around for his first 75 years, but boy, did it describe him. He never felt superior or inferior to anyone. Think of the self-confidence it took for a high school graduate who didn’t go to war to marry an Army nurse with two graduate degrees. He had friends who were professors and friends who were laborers, friends in their 20s and friends in their 90s, and he treated them all the same way.
He delighted in doing things for his friends. My mother said that, if she ever came back, she’d want to come back as one of Herb’s friends. He loved to plan presents, parties, and pranks, as well as serious endeavors. He was born before women could vote, yet was asked to nominate Jean Handley as the first woman at the Quinnipiack Club. He waged two campaigns to integrate the New Haven Country Club, succeeding the second time. He made everything possible, and everything more fun.
And that was due to his third gift—the power of positive thinking. Buck has mentioned his optimism, and he had that in spades, but that’s a disposition. Attitude is a willed trait. He believed that there wasn’t much that couldn’t be changed with a change in attitude. He applied that to his personal life first. When my mother died, we were worried about him, after finding him sitting in his office crying. A few months later, he told my sister and me that he was 81, and he could curl up and die, or he could decide to love again. He then met Martha, and had 12 and ½ happy years with her.
He applied it to his community work as well. He loved to raise money for non-profit causes, and he didn’t mind asking, nor did he waste time doing it. He planned and executed ambitious campaigns, and took great pride in the good that they did.
He used to say that some people had MBAs, and he had RLC—rat like cunning. But he also thought big, and lived that way. When he was in his late 60s, he and Don Lippincott developed Exit 9, building a bridge and road and selling them to the town against future tax revenues. At that age, he risked everything—putting up his house, his insurance, and signing personally on the notes. How many of you would do that? And he turned around and did it again in his 70s with Whitney Grove Square. When his partners went bankrupt, along with the contractor, he put in millions of his own money to finish the project, losing all of it. When it was sold years later to Yale, he sold the garage to Simon Konover in probably the largest deal in the region ever done on a handshake. Accountants called WG a failure, but he never did. He would have said that he changed the landscape of New Haven, cemented it as a residential city, paved the way for the Audubon Arts District, and arguably moved the center of commerce up from the Green. He was very proud of it, and proved it by moving there.
He always said that, if all else failed, he could be a bartender. He carried that attitude through everything he did, and it was infectious. The next time you are in a tough situation, think of him and try a little harder. Dig a little deeper. Improve your outlook. Make lemons into lemonade. You’ll be channeling Herb, and ensuring his legacy.
It’s ironic that he died on the day of the Boston Marathon. His life was a marathon, spanning almost a century, and it was surely a race that he won. He would have received a gold medal for the number of times he showed up on the short list of life influences for those who knew him. So many of you have described him as the embodiment of the greatest generation, and as a giant—a funny description for someone who weighed 120 pounds, but he was. He was also eminently lovable. In his case, the whole was greater than the sum of the parts—something about the almost magical combination of personality, character, and presence allowed him to leave an indelible imprint on more lives than almost anyone I’ve ever known. All the sayings are true—an edition of one, he came one to a box, they broke the mold. We will not see his like again.
The marathon that he ran for the last two years was one that he knew he couldn’t win. And like an athlete with a serious injury, he didn’t try to fool himself. He fought while he could, confounding his doctors with his staying power, and Martha kept him alive for a long time, by guarding him ferociously and loving him so deeply. He went out as he wanted to—calling a family meeting on Saturday night to plan this service (when he didn’t appear to be sick), kissing all the Hospice nurses by Sunday night, and dying on Monday night. It may surprise you that the man who never said die died peacefully, with grace, and gratitude for the life he lived and the people he touched and who touched him along the way. He wrung the very most out of that tired old body, but his indomitable spirit lives on in all of us, in the company he founded, and in the people and places he made better. He wanted us to celebrate, not grieve, so there’s a rousing recessional hymn and birthday cake at the Lawn Club (he would have said that 3 days til his 95th was close enough for government work), as well as hundreds of balloons emblazoned with the names of organizations he supported, students who received his scholarships, and his favorite Winston Churchill saying: “We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give.” Please take one as you leave the reception, and release it somewhere in Greater New Haven. It’s hard to imagine him resting, let alone in peace; it’s easier to think of him as being on to the next great adventure. If you close your eyes, you may be able to imagine him bounding into heaven, booming “I LOVE IT!” And, if you do, just whisper back, “No more than we loved you.”
I remember two things about my father’s term as President of the CT Association of Realtors. The first was that he brought the President of the United States to speak at the state convention (which almost didn’t happen because, when the advance team called our house, my sister thought it was a joke and hung up on them). The second memory is of his stump speech at Realtor dinners around the state. It spelled out REALTOR, beginning with R is for resilience, and going on to E for enthusiasm and A for attitude. In his typical double-time style, he raced to the end, leaving out a different letter each time. My mother would say, “Herb, I’m not going to drive around the state to listen to you misspell Realtor.” And he would reply “But you’re the only one who notices.” I used to think that was because they were partying and not listening, but I now realize that, if you knew my father, resilience, enthusiasm, and attitude said it all—the rest was unnecessary. I’ve spent much of this week reflecting upon what made him so special, and why everyone here has a Herb story, and I think it comes down to three gifts: a gift for life; a gift for friendship; and the power of positive thinking.
His gift for life began at birth in NYC, though the family moved to New Haven when he was a baby. His father came to work on the Yale Bowl, then started his own construction company. My father, living in North Haven, rode the streetcar to the nearest school in New Haven, stopping at the pool hall or the movie theater too often to have been a scholar. His favorite childhood memories were of driving his parents’ car through the corner of Church and Chapel when he was 14 and they were away for the weekend, and of saving up all year to go to Savin Rock for an evening. His father lost his business during the Depression, so my father went to work for A.C. Gilbert, whose paper boy he had been, for .25 cents an hour ($10 a week). He rose quickly through the ranks, and was deemed crucial to the war effort when they converted to a defense plant, having 2000 people reporting to him when he was 27. After the war, he had a very active social life before his marriage at 37—he was engaged three times, or, as he put it, three women thought they were engaged to him. One was a star in the Ice Capades, but he skated quickly away. He got a form of polio in the early 50s,and met my mother during his lengthy hospitalization. He decided to start his own business when I was a toddler and my sister was a newborn, using his severance pay to buy my mother a mink stole. He worked all the time in those early years. My sister and I remember helping him to clean the office on Saturdays and riding around in the trunk with the open house signs on Sunday. He was a whirlwind of activity—sales, charitable boards, a brief run for Congress, state delegations, and more. The best story I’ve heard in the last week was a call he made with a friend to a big company for the United Way. The man told him that everyone was human, and that we all put our pants on in the morning one leg at a time. My father said “Not me. I put both legs in at once, pull them up, and get going.” There was no time to waste. He rented a bike on his first trip to Europe rather than tour the tulip gardens, as he remarked that, if you’ve seen one tulip, you’ve seen them all. This applied to our family as well. When I graduated from law school and business school, he declined to come to graduation, stating that if you’ve seen one Harvard graduation, you’ve seen them all. This lack of sentimentality carried over into other realms. My sister’s horse was named Prince, and he painted her horse trailer “The Prince and the Pauper”. He told me that Norm and I couldn’t get married before 4 PM, since “there’s no sense in ruining a perfectly good golf day.” (note the time of this service). The only word of Spanish he learned in all their travels to their house in Spain was manana, and he didn’t like it. But he enjoyed every day to the fullest—every hamburger was the best one he ever ate, every occasion was a party (and he was the guest of honor), and there were wonderful opportunities everywhere.
He never had regrets, and he rarely looked back. One of the few times was when he told me that he’d like to find his Uncle Frank, who had emigrated to Canada. This was a few years ago, and I asked him when he had last heard from Uncle Frank. He said that it thought it was about 1920! He had every faith that we could track him down. Needless to say, Uncle Frank had died, but we found his son—my father’s first cousin—in Saskatoon. He was also forward-looking about change of all kinds. He was proud of being the first in the real estate industry to run billboards, full-page ads, radio and TV commercials. He had a car phone in 1968, when you had to go through the marine operator to place your call—totally impractical with a five-minute commute, but so typical. At the end of his life, he had a Facebook page and an IPOD shuffle (although he called it his “music box”).
Part of his exuberance was because of his gift for friendship. He loved his friends of all ages, old and new. His strong handshakes, big kisses, the spring in his step, and the twinkle in his eye will all be remembered as hallmarks of his entrances. The phrase “comfortable in his own skin” probably wasn’t around for his first 75 years, but boy, did it describe him. He never felt superior or inferior to anyone. Think of the self-confidence it took for a high school graduate who didn’t go to war to marry an Army nurse with two graduate degrees. He had friends who were professors and friends who were laborers, friends in their 20s and friends in their 90s, and he treated them all the same way.
He delighted in doing things for his friends. My mother said that, if she ever came back, she’d want to come back as one of Herb’s friends. He loved to plan presents, parties, and pranks, as well as serious endeavors. He was born before women could vote, yet was asked to nominate Jean Handley as the first woman at the Quinnipiack Club. He waged two campaigns to integrate the New Haven Country Club, succeeding the second time. He made everything possible, and everything more fun.
And that was due to his third gift—the power of positive thinking. Buck has mentioned his optimism, and he had that in spades, but that’s a disposition. Attitude is a willed trait. He believed that there wasn’t much that couldn’t be changed with a change in attitude. He applied that to his personal life first. When my mother died, we were worried about him, after finding him sitting in his office crying. A few months later, he told my sister and me that he was 81, and he could curl up and die, or he could decide to love again. He then met Martha, and had 12 and ½ happy years with her.
He applied it to his community work as well. He loved to raise money for non-profit causes, and he didn’t mind asking, nor did he waste time doing it. He planned and executed ambitious campaigns, and took great pride in the good that they did.
He used to say that some people had MBAs, and he had RLC—rat like cunning. But he also thought big, and lived that way. When he was in his late 60s, he and Don Lippincott developed Exit 9, building a bridge and road and selling them to the town against future tax revenues. At that age, he risked everything—putting up his house, his insurance, and signing personally on the notes. How many of you would do that? And he turned around and did it again in his 70s with Whitney Grove Square. When his partners went bankrupt, along with the contractor, he put in millions of his own money to finish the project, losing all of it. When it was sold years later to Yale, he sold the garage to Simon Konover in probably the largest deal in the region ever done on a handshake. Accountants called WG a failure, but he never did. He would have said that he changed the landscape of New Haven, cemented it as a residential city, paved the way for the Audubon Arts District, and arguably moved the center of commerce up from the Green. He was very proud of it, and proved it by moving there.
He always said that, if all else failed, he could be a bartender. He carried that attitude through everything he did, and it was infectious. The next time you are in a tough situation, think of him and try a little harder. Dig a little deeper. Improve your outlook. Make lemons into lemonade. You’ll be channeling Herb, and ensuring his legacy.
It’s ironic that he died on the day of the Boston Marathon. His life was a marathon, spanning almost a century, and it was surely a race that he won. He would have received a gold medal for the number of times he showed up on the short list of life influences for those who knew him. So many of you have described him as the embodiment of the greatest generation, and as a giant—a funny description for someone who weighed 120 pounds, but he was. He was also eminently lovable. In his case, the whole was greater than the sum of the parts—something about the almost magical combination of personality, character, and presence allowed him to leave an indelible imprint on more lives than almost anyone I’ve ever known. All the sayings are true—an edition of one, he came one to a box, they broke the mold. We will not see his like again.
The marathon that he ran for the last two years was one that he knew he couldn’t win. And like an athlete with a serious injury, he didn’t try to fool himself. He fought while he could, confounding his doctors with his staying power, and Martha kept him alive for a long time, by guarding him ferociously and loving him so deeply. He went out as he wanted to—calling a family meeting on Saturday night to plan this service (when he didn’t appear to be sick), kissing all the Hospice nurses by Sunday night, and dying on Monday night. It may surprise you that the man who never said die died peacefully, with grace, and gratitude for the life he lived and the people he touched and who touched him along the way. He wrung the very most out of that tired old body, but his indomitable spirit lives on in all of us, in the company he founded, and in the people and places he made better. He wanted us to celebrate, not grieve, so there’s a rousing recessional hymn and birthday cake at the Lawn Club (he would have said that 3 days til his 95th was close enough for government work), as well as hundreds of balloons emblazoned with the names of organizations he supported, students who received his scholarships, and his favorite Winston Churchill saying: “We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give.” Please take one as you leave the reception, and release it somewhere in Greater New Haven. It’s hard to imagine him resting, let alone in peace; it’s easier to think of him as being on to the next great adventure. If you close your eyes, you may be able to imagine him bounding into heaven, booming “I LOVE IT!” And, if you do, just whisper back, “No more than we loved you.”
Monday, May 16, 2011
Will It Ever Stop Raining??
You must wonder what IS good for real estate, if we complain about snow and we complain about rain and we complain about heat and we complain about sunshine, but the truth is that people look at real estate when the weather is good but not too good. There is a human aversion to getting wet (although my dog seems to share it...) that keeps people indoors when it's pouring. There is also a natural tendency to want to go somewhere outdoors when the weather is beautiful. That leaves in between days to shop for property. Rain may be better than snow, because it doesn't fill up your driveway, and both are probably preferable to ice, but nothing that causes gray skies is ideal for showing property. Not too much looks good in gloomy light.
So we know that we're not the only ones wishing that the sun would come out, but we have our reasons. And they just add to all the other reasons that we--and you--are ready for spring!
So we know that we're not the only ones wishing that the sun would come out, but we have our reasons. And they just add to all the other reasons that we--and you--are ready for spring!
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Evening Open Houses?
I have an idea on which I'm interested in input from the public. We have traditionally done almost all open houses on Sunday afternoons. That isn't true everywhere in the country, since I have noticed that, in Arizona, Saturday seems to be just as common as Sunday. There is an historical logic to the current pattern, since people were usually less busy on Sunday afternoons. The idea of going to open houses seemed to fit in with the practice of taking Sunday drives.
Today's world is different. Children's sports, in particular, take no holidays. Sunday afternoons may be as jam-packed as any other day. In addition, weather is a huge factor. All real estate agents know that there is a bell curve for attendance--if the weather is too bad, no one comes, and, if the weather is too good, no one comes. For busy people, a great day may just be too precious to pass up.
So why not vary the routine? If you are like I am, you may prefer to squeeze in all you can into the work week, leaving bigger blocks of weekend time for other things, especially outdoor activities. In this season of extra light, we could hold open houses late in the day, and interested parties could stop on their way home from work or picking up kids. Even for commercial properties, this idea has appeal. Many owners and managers are too busy to take time out to look at space during the work day. We could serve wine and cheese, and let people take their time after the end of the work day to explore real estate options. Even agents would benefit, as it would leave weekend time to work with buyers.
We have tried this a few times, at least in residential, but it hasn't caught on. I'm curious as to why it has not. What do you think?
Today's world is different. Children's sports, in particular, take no holidays. Sunday afternoons may be as jam-packed as any other day. In addition, weather is a huge factor. All real estate agents know that there is a bell curve for attendance--if the weather is too bad, no one comes, and, if the weather is too good, no one comes. For busy people, a great day may just be too precious to pass up.
So why not vary the routine? If you are like I am, you may prefer to squeeze in all you can into the work week, leaving bigger blocks of weekend time for other things, especially outdoor activities. In this season of extra light, we could hold open houses late in the day, and interested parties could stop on their way home from work or picking up kids. Even for commercial properties, this idea has appeal. Many owners and managers are too busy to take time out to look at space during the work day. We could serve wine and cheese, and let people take their time after the end of the work day to explore real estate options. Even agents would benefit, as it would leave weekend time to work with buyers.
We have tried this a few times, at least in residential, but it hasn't caught on. I'm curious as to why it has not. What do you think?
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Double Dip Fears
Lately the papers have been full of talk about the possibility of a "double dip" in real estate sales. What some experts worry about is that current economic conditions will cause real estate sales, which had started to creep up, and values, which had not fallen as far as had been feared, to go down once again. The curve would then look a little like a W (although the anemic recovery would suggest that it might be more like a U, bumping along the bottom). The worst case scenario would be a V, with two downward slopes before any rise. Should those fears affect what consumers do this spring? I'm going to argue that those worries should not determine short-term behavior. In fact, if consumers step up to the plate and buy, they will actually cause the real estate market to improve and avoid the second drop. Even if units do go down again, however, we need to look at the facts in our region. Prices didn't go way up here, and they shouldn't dive downward, either. In addition, our non-profit engines are still strong, and should keep sales from plunging. Even if there isn't call for wild optimism, normal buyers should be fine, as long as they don't plan to flip their properties too quickly. The market seems to be taking care of that possibility, as more people rent until they are secure in their jobs and locations. To make a comparison, suppose that your car was old and needed replacement. Even if you thought that prices might come down for cars in another year or two, would you wait? Really? Or would you move ahead with your life, and enjoy the peace and security of owning something you valued, knowing that giving up a little in resale value is worth it in the overall scheme of things? I would bet on the latter course. I'm hoping buyers agree this spring.
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