Recovery Doesn't Have To Be Perfect

While people seem to feel lately that we have avoided a "double dip" problem, there are various conflicting statistics and opinions about the actual health of the economy.  From our point of view, we can see that the real estate sales units and average prices in our region haven't gone up very much in some cases, and that prices have gone down in many areas. 

This doesn't necessarily mean that the price of a house is still declining.  Very few of the sales are repeat sales of the exact same house, so it's very hard to tell what is happening on a micro level.  Since the current market includes so many first-time homebuyers, the average and median prices are bound to be lower, as they are skewed to the lower end.  Also, there have been so few high-end sales in some towns that it's hard to have a meaningful average. 

What is true is what we're hearing.  We aren't hearing as many people say that they are waiting to see whether prices go down further.  We aren't hearing as many people say that they are renting because they can't sell the home they left behind when they relocated.  We aren't hearing as many people talking about another major decline.

While it is true that buyers still expect good "deals", often on homes that have already been priced to sell quickly, and while it is true that they want every detail of the home to be perfect, the conversation has shifted slightly.  The supply of houses on the market is declining around the country, and is notable in certain price ranges, at least for new listings.

The characterization I would use to describe the shift in mood and outlook is that we have switched from a "glass half empty" mode to a "glass half full" one.  That means that, while prices haven't risen, and while the market is a long way from roaring hot, people seem more balanced about the future of the economy, and their own futures.  Not exactly sanguine, but calmer.  Maybe it's the "new normal", or maybe it reflects a generation that barely remembers a skyrocketing real estate climate.  No matter the cause, we're glad to see it, and we're glad to be in a more positive selling environment at last.

Double Dip Fears

Lately the papers have been full of talk about the possibility of a "double dip" in real estate sales. What some experts worry about is that current economic conditions will cause real estate sales, which had started to creep up, and values, which had not fallen as far as had been feared, to go down once again. The curve would then look a little like a W (although the anemic recovery would suggest that it might be more like a U, bumping along the bottom). The worst case scenario would be a V, with two downward slopes before any rise. Should those fears affect what consumers do this spring? I'm going to argue that those worries should not determine short-term behavior. In fact, if consumers step up to the plate and buy, they will actually cause the real estate market to improve and avoid the second drop. Even if units do go down again, however, we need to look at the facts in our region. Prices didn't go way up here, and they shouldn't dive downward, either. In addition, our non-profit engines are still strong, and should keep sales from plunging. Even if there isn't call for wild optimism, normal buyers should be fine, as long as they don't plan to flip their properties too quickly. The market seems to be taking care of that possibility, as more people rent until they are secure in their jobs and locations. To make a comparison, suppose that your car was old and needed replacement. Even if you thought that prices might come down for cars in another year or two, would you wait? Really? Or would you move ahead with your life, and enjoy the peace and security of owning something you valued, knowing that giving up a little in resale value is worth it in the overall scheme of things? I would bet on the latter course. I'm hoping buyers agree this spring.

Should We Let the Market Fall? Part 2

In my entry yesterday, I blogged about the NYT article talking about what's happening in the current market (very little) and what could or should be done about it. The first issue I discussed was the possibility of a double dip, and whether that would happen. Today I have a suggestion about the type of governmental intervention that might prevent further declines.

All of the efforts to date ($23 billion in tax credits) have been focused on homebuyers, particularly first-time homebuyers. As I have opined before, first-time buyers are the most likely to buy no matter what market conditions might exist at the time they are ready to purchase. Since interest rates are low, and prices have come down somewhat, and since they have nothing to compare those prices to, they should be motivated already. The problem is that there is little well-priced product out there for them to buy, low sales notwithstanding. The inventory lacks homes which are not even being marketed due to current conditions, and many that have been on the market too long and for too much.

Why shouldn't the Federal government consider a one-time tax credit for sellers, maybe as a percentage of the loss in value that they have incurred, or maybe as a credit when they both sell and then buy? Many people would not even qualify, just as many buyers made too much money or bought houses too expensive for the homebuyer credit. Some have lived in their homes for so long that they would never lose money when selling, and some will sell but not purchase again. However, it would be a strong signal from the government that sellers need to lower prices before the market can move again. If that could be accomplished for the same price tag as we incurred giving an incentive to buyers, it might free up the whole sales chain. Buyers who can't buy because they already own a home they can't sell would then trade up or move, and people who just can't stomach not getting what they would have gotten a few years ago might feel that the tax credit made up for that, at least in part. There are many details to be worked out, but something needs to happen, and I don't think that even job creation will change the perception about the current state of real estate without some sort of outside help. Waiting around is costing us all time, money, and sound sleep.