Slow and Steady Wins the Race?

Connecticut continues to wend its way toward the recovery levels now enjoyed by the rest of the country.  It's discouraging for sellers, in particular, to read about strong levels of demand in other places, while sales in Connecticut fell for the period from last year to this year.  The news is not all bleak, however.  The prices of properties sold has gone up in most towns, from 2012 to 2013.  In some towns, sales have also increased, sometimes substantially so.

  All indications are that Connecticut will continue to recover lost jobs and will see slow, but steady, increased demand for real estate over the next few years.  While the pace of growth will be somewhat anemic, in the view of most experts, it's headed in a positive direction.  And, arguably, slow growth is more sustainable.

 Furthermore, the stark contrast between the fortunes of this state and others has emphasized the need for the State, and municipalities, to court economic development, improve infrastructure, and train workers for the jobs of tomorrow.  All of these efforts will be required to make Connecticut competitive in upcoming years, and we should be glad about anything that makes that clear to State and local officials.

If at any point we lose heart, we should take comfort from the tale of the tortoise and the hare.  Doesn't slow and steady win the race?

Hartford's Buyers' Market

Hartford is currently listed number 9 in the list of the best markets in the country for buyers.  To put that in perspective, Phoenix is listed as one of the hottest sellers' markets.  So what do they really mean?

The people who compile these lists rate as a buyers' market anywhere where prices are not rising, where homes sell below the asking price, and where the median home in on the market longer before selling.  Now think about what that could mean.  In Phoenix, where everyone knows that there are tons of short sales and there was a huge oversupply of homes built, with declining values and high rates of foreclosure, sellers are very realistic.  They may even expect to lose money.  Also, many people have seasonal homes there, in which they are less emotionally invested, and may just be willing to dump them to be done with things.  They may rate outside advice more strongly, since they may not be Phoenix natives.  And they know that they are competing with banks and corporations as non-emotional sellers.

Now compare that to the Hartford area.  Most homes are primary homes, with owners living in them and feeling strongly about their value.  There was not a great deal of building down in the prior decade, nor were there daily articles in national news media about the poor market and the high foreclosure rate.  Most foreclosures, since Connecticut is a law state (meaning that you must go through the legal system to foreclose), are still in the works.  Finally, prices went up in the past decade and a half, but not like they did in the Sunbelt, where jobs were growing and the economy was expanding.

Then, add in the factor that every home is different, so its value is subjective, and it is not a commodity (although it may have gotten close in the Southwest).  It's not like buying a Honda here versus in Arizona; you are not comparing apples to apples.

However, numbers don't lie.  Sellers here have not been as willing to drop prices or make concessions, so their homes have not sold.  Buyers have chosen to rent and wait for values to bottom out.  Also, they have probably been less inclined to put their homes on the market for what they are truly worth, since they are still hoping to get out whole, and, often, to buy another home.

When will things change?  Either the market will get much better, and, like a rising tide, raise all boats, or prices will come down until those homes that have rusty For Sale signs out front are all gone.  But it does seem like a stretch to say that sellers are better off in Phoenix than in Hartford, overall.  Like much of life, it's just not black and white.

Seller Concessions

One of the new realities of the current real estate market is that buyers often ask for concessions, monetary and otherwise, from sellers.  It used to be that they asked for things to be included or fixed, based on the inspection.  Now, they also may ask for the seller to pay some or all of the closing costs.  This is often so that the purchase price is higher, and allows them to qualify for a higher mortgage amount.

We have seen some issues at the closing with these requests.  The sellers don't always seem to realize that the purchase price will be the basis for the conveyance tax, the land records, and the commission.  It's the amount at the top of the sales contract that governs all those amounts.  We, for instance,  have other brokers to pay in almost all cases.  Sometimes it's a referral, sometimes a co-broke, either inside or outside the company.  The commission offered is on the full amount, and we are responsible for it, whether or not the seller made concessions.  While I understand why sellers wouldn't always like that, I don't see the difference between a concession made in cash or at closing from a concession made during inspections or even during negotiations.  It happens, and it isn't our fault.  And we shouldn't have to take the co-broke commission difference out of our pocket.

There are a lot of ways to get upset during the length of a sales transaction.  But, please, don't shoot the messenger.  We're trying to help.

More Reasons to Buy Now

The Wall Street Journal this morning had one of the most positive articles about the current real estate market that I've seen in a long time. They said that, if you take out foreclosures, the real estate prices are really off less than 1 percent from a year ago, suggesting that we are at the bottom of the market. In addition, mortgage rates are near a 50-year low, and the ratio of housing prices to income is over 20 percent better than the fifteen-year average. Although household formation rates have fallen recently, the aging of the baby boomers portends an uptick in home purchases and second home acquisitions over the next number of years. They even went on to say that most people still want to own homes, even discounting or ignoring the investment value, because of control over their environment and access to schools and other amenities. They predict that prices will start to climb soon.

All of this seems to indicate that now is the time to buy. It never pays to try to find the low point at its exact nadir. All indications say that we are now close to that point, and therefore buyers should be rushing out to buy. The article does talk about the new difficulties in qualifying for and obtaining mortgages, but there are many other people who simply aren't buying because they are worried about the future value of their investment. Do those people not worry about the stock market? The bond market? The value of art and antiques? In fact, do they sleep at all?

It seems clear that we need to continue to convince buyers that the time to act is soon. If not today, then later this week or month!

Listing Prices and Offers

This morning at our New Haven office sales meeting, agents were saying that people still want to price their properties too high for the current market. We went on to recount numerous stories both good and bad; people who priced too high and ended up with very low offers, and people who went lower and got multiple bids over the asking price. We believe that buyers know the market conditions, and that they will correctly gauge where offers should be. When it looks like a bargain, they know to bid high. When it looks too high, however, most people deduct too much, figuring that they are in for a long round of negotiations. And, of course, that's exactly what that seller was thinking when he listed too high--a self-fulfilling prophecy all around. Agents told stories of people who ended up selling for too little by using this latter method.

We agreed that sellers don't realize that most buyers search by price. That is, they go onto the internet, our website, or Realtor.com, and they enter the sales price they want to pay. Therefore, if you list your property at $400,000, hoping to get around $350,000, a person who can pay $350,000 may never see your home, because they would be searching in a range that would not include your asking price. So, even though you might be willing to bargain, you may never get that chance, because the above buyer will be out looking at houses listed in his price range. Once you realize the way the process usually works, you will understand why Realtors push so hard to get you into the range that will give your property the maximum exposure, and therefore the greatest chance of selling.

What's Selling?

Although it may sound as though nothing is selling in the current real estate market, there are some pockets of strong activity. The market is almost bifurcated, with most homes sitting and a few receiving multiple offers. I checked with two of our offices, our New Haven office and our Wallingford Regional office, to see what common threads exist with the quick sales we've had. There are three factors: price; condition; and location. Price means two things--the price must be considered a good value, and lower prices are more likely to attract first-time home buyers (the most active segment of the market now). Condition usually means that the property should be clean, freshly painted, and clutter-free. Location is the normal location, location, location. The worse the market, the closer you can get to the ideal location, and status does matter.

Having said all that, we are seeing strong interest particularly in East Rock, where demand outstrips supply now. Stefanie Rank has a listing on Livingston Street that has been shown over 50 times since the end of last week, and multiple offers. Fran DeToro sold a Whitney Avenue condo in less than a week. Mary Jane Burt has sold two high-end condos recently.

Hamden is also seeing demand. Eileen Smith has three times cleaned out a house top to bottom, shown it from Thursday to Sunday, and sold it on Monday. She has researched current prices in Spring Glen, and they have decreased by only 1%. The Edgehill team just sold a Hamden house in two days.

Remember that the tax credit can be used for one's 2008 taxes, so time is of the essence. So, if you're thinking of selling in any of these neighborhoods, please consider doing it now!