Why the Rental Market Matters

We have been reading lately about New Haven's stellar rental market--either the lowest or the second-lowest vacancy rate in the country, depending upon your source.  Why is this?  And how does it relate to other real estate data?

New Haven's extraordinary occupancy rate for apartments has several causes, some of which are unique to New Haven, and some of which apply across markets nationally.  New Haven's own reasons have to do, first of all, with the large number of students residing in the region.  Students are almost always renters, and graduate students rarely live in university housing.  The second driver in New Haven is the nightlife and culture prevalent here, so that young people (and empty nesters) who work in other places in Connecticut will disproportionately choose to rent in New Haven and commute to their jobs. 

Around the country, there are certain trends that are helping rental markets to stay strong.  Of course, high foreclosure rates will result in more renters, as the people displaced from their houses won't be able to buy right away.  Also, the uncertainty of all job security means that many more workers, executives included, leave their families behind and rent in the new city until they are confident that they will stay at the job.  That trend is exacerbated by the difficulty transferees are having in selling their homes in the locations they are leaving; until they do, many must rent.  Even those who sell are renting in many instances, since they worry that housing prices have not bottomed out, and that this may not be the best time to buy a new home.

All of these factors have combined in Greater New Haven to make rentals scarce and expensive.  It also offers an opportunity for investors to buy property and rent it out, and not just the typical apartment building or multi-family house.  Single family homes make good rentals also, particularly when you can buy one for a price that allows you to cover costs with rental income.  It can even be a good alternative for those who have houses on the market that are not selling.  Many people are looking for homes to lease, not just in the center city, and it's a good time to find tenants.  This is especially true if you allow pets!  As with all types of real estate markets, there are ways to make money in this one.

The Power of Low Rates

I have a real estate friend in Madison, Wisconsin--where the market seems a lot like ours much of the time--who thinks that the real estate market will not recover unless and until the government aims directly at our industry with programs designed to improve sales. Although the tax credits did that, they expired and left us, arguably, in worse shape than ever (however, people don't realize that, because they look at the fact that housing prices haven't declined much, and in some cases, they have edged up slightly--that's because all the first-time homebuyers have left the market, leaving higher-priced homes as the only ones selling). The government has focused on the banks, using first TARP money and then foreclosure actions to regulate activity. We probably haven't been helped at all by the foreclosure stoppage, since it just lengthens the period of time where the whole housing system is backed up. Until all those homes, which--foreclosed or not--the owners can't afford, get transferred somehow, there won't be a "normal" real estate market. Appraisers can't even use those transfers in computing value, since they aren't arm's-length transactions, but they obviously have an effect on values and on regular sales.

This same friend, although thinking that we need Federal intervention to improve our market, also has the most compelling argument for buying right now. He has made charts that show that a 10% drop in prices actually has less of an effect on monthly payments (the gold standard by which most buyers decide how much they can afford) than a 1% rise in interest rates. Therefore, buying a home now, with the current rates, costs you less than buying it later, even if prices drop by another 10%. If rates go up, that savings in the prices will be more than offset. Whether that obviates the need for governmental action on behalf of the housing industry, I'm not sure. But I am sure that it makes a compelling case for buying a home now.

Where Have All the Buyers Gone?

The national news, as well as area papers, are full of stories about the abrupt dropoff in housing sales for May. Everyone knew that this might happen when the tax credits expired, but the amount of the decline is still surprising to people. After all, many families did not qualify for the credits, which decreased as income increased. Also, although the second round of credits applied to repeat buyers, it was always aimed at first-time buyers. They bought, but probably mostly in the first round, from what we could see. Ordinarily, first-time buyers make up about 45% of the total market for sales. With the tax credit, that percentage had increased to 55%. Even though that means that we have moved 10% of the sales from the future into the present (now the past) with the help of tax credits, there is still almost half of the buying population unaccounted for in these numbers.

Where did they go? It seems that consumer confidence, once again, has reared its ugly head. All the news reports about job losses, retail sales, and the stock market have affected homebuyers negatively. While we knew that this could happen--it's some version of the double-dip theory--it still surprises those of us in real estate, to some extent.

Interest rates are very low. Housing prices are back down, in many cases, to where they were several years ago. Everyone knows that, even if you sell low, it doesn't matter, as long as you also buy low. Consumers have stayed out of the fray for most of the tumultuous recent past. So they should be out in force, and they're not.

One theory is that there's too much on the market, and therefore they have paralysis. Another is that they think prices will continue to decline. It is true that mortgages are harder to get. And, of course, it's summer--hot and humid weather tends to keep people from doing all but the essential tasks of life.

However, we're all watching with bated breath. The housing industry cannot afford a long layoff from sales, as we endured at the beginning of last year. Congress, take note!