Spring Inventory

I ran our Wallingford Regional office meeting this morning. We went through the list of every listing we have in that office, and, as usual these days, we thought almost 90% of them were not going to sell at their current price. Sometimes it's not because of what we would consider inherent overpricing, but rather that something about the layout, the condition, the price range, or the location is causing it not to sell; in the end, though, often the only way to fix the problem is by--you guessed it--lowering the price.

At the same meeting, however, we discussed properties that went quickly and with multiple offers. We therefore concluded that, since much of our inventory was going to sit for the foreseeable future, we were short on listings for the spring market. We need more of the homes that people want to buy, in neighborhoods where they want to live.

Before deciding what to do as a seller, then, you need to consider this bifurcated market, and figure out where your home will fall. If you live in an area where employment is stable and newcomers are entering, this is a great time to list. And do it quickly, before the rush begins. There's always something to fix, or clean, or de-clutter, and you don't want to miss the spring market.

What's Selling?

Although it may sound as though nothing is selling in the current real estate market, there are some pockets of strong activity. The market is almost bifurcated, with most homes sitting and a few receiving multiple offers. I checked with two of our offices, our New Haven office and our Wallingford Regional office, to see what common threads exist with the quick sales we've had. There are three factors: price; condition; and location. Price means two things--the price must be considered a good value, and lower prices are more likely to attract first-time home buyers (the most active segment of the market now). Condition usually means that the property should be clean, freshly painted, and clutter-free. Location is the normal location, location, location. The worse the market, the closer you can get to the ideal location, and status does matter.

Having said all that, we are seeing strong interest particularly in East Rock, where demand outstrips supply now. Stefanie Rank has a listing on Livingston Street that has been shown over 50 times since the end of last week, and multiple offers. Fran DeToro sold a Whitney Avenue condo in less than a week. Mary Jane Burt has sold two high-end condos recently.

Hamden is also seeing demand. Eileen Smith has three times cleaned out a house top to bottom, shown it from Thursday to Sunday, and sold it on Monday. She has researched current prices in Spring Glen, and they have decreased by only 1%. The Edgehill team just sold a Hamden house in two days.

Remember that the tax credit can be used for one's 2008 taxes, so time is of the essence. So, if you're thinking of selling in any of these neighborhoods, please consider doing it now!

Interest Rate Update

Now that the weather has moderated a little, we're starting to see some activity in the real estate market. One question on everyone's mind is the forecast for interest rates over the next few months. It's particularly true for those who are refinancing, since some banks allow you to take one "drop" between commitment and closing. Therefore, people want to know whether rates will go down more.

Of course, the correct answer is: Who knows? But I think most betting people feel that the governmental stimulus and drive to improve the economy will result in incentives of every kind that could possibly help the housing market. That would argue for lower rates to come. I don't think they'll be much lower, or for much longer, since banks are paying 5% for the TARP money. So how long can they really afford to loan it out at less than 5%?

So, if they are going to go down to 4 and 1/2, even for a little while, why not wait? The answer to that lies in the fine print. Fannie Mae, which drives a lot of bank lending policy, has quietly been raising the standards on loans. FICO credit scores to qualify for the best rates are rising, and higher rates are imposed when there is a higher loan-to-value ratio being sought. Translation: The rate might be slightly lower for some amount of time, but it will be harder for most people without excellent credit and enough cash for a substantial downpayment to qualify for that rate. When you take those factors into account, you will almost certainly come down on the side of buying or refinancing as soon as possible.

I should point out, in the nature of a disclaimer, that I do not have Obama's private Blackberry address, so these thoughts are my own, based upon reading public materials! And, given all that's going on, I'm sure there will be more news to follow.

Testifying in Hartford

I went up to the Capitol today, to testify before the Finance Committee about its proposed bill to increase fees and extend the sales tax to professional services of all kinds. CBIA sent me information about the bill, and the CT Association of Realtors added more. My testimony, which was the first from the public attendees, basically tried to give them a flavor of what it's like to be running a small business in CT--or anywhere, I guess--these days, and to let them know that I thought that they should cut their expenses, as I have mine, before talking about increased taxes. The last thing we need, or want, now is more to pay! An extension of the sales tax would mean that every seller, on top of paying the bank, the broker, the adjustments, and the conveyance tax (see, they're already getting their share), would now pay 6% of the commission and 6% of the lawyer's closing fees. Why do they always think it's a good idea to tax people who are selling things, as though they necessarily have extra cash to throw around? And what makes them think that I can pay extra license fees now? Or pay people to collect and remit sales tax? Talk about kicking someone when she's down!

Don't make the mistake of thinking that increased fees and professional taxes and other proposals won't affect you--in the end, they will. Maybe they should take away the House and Senate's free family medical care for life, before they come after the rest of us. We all need to do our share, but the way to go about it is to cut your expenses before you say what you need in extra revenue. And I sure wish I could just ask for more revenue!

Time to Reprice that Listing

There's a term in real estate called "chasing the market down", and it refers to people who start out by pricing their listings too high, and then continue to lower them month by month. It's a strategy that many sellers employ, and we agents are not immune to it ourselves, but the results are almost always poor. We can cite example after example of buildings and houses that sold BELOW what they would have sold for, if they'd only started out at the correct price. Now, I realize that "correct" is a term of art, and subject to disagreement. I also realize how tempting it is just to "test the market" at a high number. But you have to understand how the selling process works in order to see what a mistake it is.

A listing receives most attention when it's new, for a number of reasons. We notice signs when they're just erected. We notice pictures in ads when they're different from prior weeks. The same is true of the website. Also, agents and buyers who are receiving notifications of new listings are focusing on the ones that they haven't seen before. Most mailings are done on new listings. Most showings come as soon as something comes on the market. Everyone is motivated to see, consider, and buy something before it gets snatched up by someone else.

What that means for sellers is that you have wasted the most valuable exposure that your listing will receive. It's the same principle as the old saying that "you only get one chance to make a first impression". Every time the price comes down later, agents and buyers will have a subliminal impression that your property is overpriced, or that there's something wrong with it, since it's been on the market for so long. Why would you risk that, when our experience shows that people whose homes sell quickly for a lower price ultimately receive more than people who start out high, in order to "leave room to negotiate" or "see what they can get".

The moral is clear: If you're serious about selling, be serious from the start. Don't waste your time, your agent's time, or the attention span of the buying public. Consumers now are far more educated about prices, with the advent of the Internet. They'll know when you've entered the market with an attractive price, and your chances of selling, and selling quickly, will ratchet up. Take the money and move on. Buy another property while rates are low. Time is money.

Right now, our agents feel that almost 90% of our listings are priced too high to sell right away. Some of that is because, with declining prices, what was a good price 90 days ago may be too high now. Some is because there's just not enough selling right now (for example, only two houses closed in Madison in November). However, a great deal is because people don't understand what I just described above. You will have an advantgage--one you need in a difficult economy--if you do.

Connecticut Commercial Real Estate Now

We had an interesting Commercial Department meeting this morning. One of the agents said that the selection of good commercial properties in our area is the best that it's been in a long time. Well-located, well-priced buildings are now on the market, for buyers who can come up with the financing. Based on what else we are hearing, that may mean that they have to have cash! Even that is not a total bar, as there are many investors around who do have access to cash or capital from others. While some may suggest that it's best to wait until prices fall further, I'm not sure that we know enough about the stimulus plan to know when that will be (or even if it's now!).

Well, it's snowing AGAIN. Since no one buys real estate in the snow, my only question for the rest of the day is whether yoga will be held. Yoga is one of the arrows in a real estate broker's quiver these days--whatever calms you down is good.