Where are the Young Real Estate Agents?

We spent a good deal of the morning brainstorming about recruiting.  Nationally, and for us, the average real estate agent is in his/her late 50s.  Since the market is now being driven by first-time homebuyers, and since they are mostly in their 20s and 30s, there is a disconnect between professionals and  clients.  Most of the agents are digital immigrants, and might have kids the same age as the buyers, so it would certainly be good to develop a pool of younger agents.  Younger buyers, and sellers, have vastly different expectations about technology, about time, about how to shop for anything, and about risk.

When we thought about recruiting agents to match this profile, we realized that there are many aspects of a real estate career that would appeal to Gen Xers and Millenials.  Unlike the Greatest Generation, they aren't expecting one steady career for a lifetime, so the ups and downs of a commission-based agent wouldn't necessarily trouble them.  Unlike older workers, they aren't tied to an office or a standard work day--they could start at noon if they were serving sellers and buyers who shared their hours!  They wouldn't be limited to two weeks of vacation every year, and their dress code would be flexible.  In all those ways, it's a perfect career for a younger person.  And, if their parents have to support them in this job market, as they graduate and look for work, why not enter a field where hiring--and potential--are unlimited?

Learning from Ebay

I'm not an Ebay person, but I have lots of friends who are, and I've certainly read enough about the philosophy to get the idea.  You go on looking for something, and then you watch the bidding over a period of time.  In the end, if you want to get something, you pay the price that it takes to get it.  If you can't stand watching others bid, you take the "Buy It Now" option.

There's a real estate theory along the same lines.  When a house is listed, potential buyers look, and note the price.  They often sit back and watch the action, sometimes bidding, but often waiting.  If they really, really want just that house, they will go in early and strong, and close the deal.  If not, they wait and see.  At the end of their search, if that's the house they want, they need to outbid others to get it.

The idea is that things will sell, in most cases, for what they're worth.  There may be times when sellers get lucky, or buyers do, because of circumstances not created by them, but by the other party.  Most of the time, property goes for its fair value, because bidders will eventually come in and pay what they know it's worth. The moral?  It's not the listing price, it's the inherent value.  Put your property on low, and let buyers bid it up.  Just as in Ebay, if you can create a feeding frenzy, you will get more, and much more quickly, than if you list it too high.

Seller Concessions

One of the new realities of the current real estate market is that buyers often ask for concessions, monetary and otherwise, from sellers.  It used to be that they asked for things to be included or fixed, based on the inspection.  Now, they also may ask for the seller to pay some or all of the closing costs.  This is often so that the purchase price is higher, and allows them to qualify for a higher mortgage amount.

We have seen some issues at the closing with these requests.  The sellers don't always seem to realize that the purchase price will be the basis for the conveyance tax, the land records, and the commission.  It's the amount at the top of the sales contract that governs all those amounts.  We, for instance,  have other brokers to pay in almost all cases.  Sometimes it's a referral, sometimes a co-broke, either inside or outside the company.  The commission offered is on the full amount, and we are responsible for it, whether or not the seller made concessions.  While I understand why sellers wouldn't always like that, I don't see the difference between a concession made in cash or at closing from a concession made during inspections or even during negotiations.  It happens, and it isn't our fault.  And we shouldn't have to take the co-broke commission difference out of our pocket.

There are a lot of ways to get upset during the length of a sales transaction.  But, please, don't shoot the messenger.  We're trying to help.

Real Estate Around the Country

I just returned from my semi-annual meeting with other large independent brokers from around the country. This time, we met at Lake Lanier in North Georgia. The weather was great, but the real estate climate is, in some respects, sobering. National experts are saying that equal supply and demand and a "normal" market may come as late as 2015. Sales for the first quarter were down around the country, in double digits. Some of that was weather-related, but the rest is still about jobs and financing issues.

There is a silver lining, though, and it's a big one. The interesting news was that prices of sold properties were up by a fraction, 1% or so. This is counterintuitive, if you think about the effect of foreclosed properties and short sales on the value of homes. What it seems to suggest is that it is the best homes (not the most expensive, but the most desirable homes in every price category) that are moving. What that means for sellers is that homes must be put on the market at levels that seem to be good values.

What it means for buyers is even more important. There aren't great bargains out there, at least on homes that are well priced and well maintained. Putting in a lowball offer isn't going to result in a purchase. It goes back to the old saying "You get what you pay for". If you want it, you're going to have to buy it at its value, and not at a fraction.

We just had an offer on a commercial property with a listing price of $2.1 million. Someone submitted an offer of $700,000. That's just wasting everyone's time. The statistics seem to indicate that the short sales and foreclosures aren't yet changing prices on regular properties, and given what we are experiencing in delays on such sales, we can vouch for that. Those things are backed up in the pipeline. What's moving through are the good deals, but they are good deals at good prices, not bargain basement fire sales. Buyers should assume that they won't get what they want if they insist on bottom fishing. It may be a sport, but it's not a strategy.

Listings Flying Off the Shelf

After a long, long, long winter, we're seeing signs of spring! And that includes the spring market. I'm starting to get lots of calls from people connected to Yale, who've gotten their job offers and are beginning to look for housing here. We are entering lots of new listings into the system--several dozen in New Haven alone last month. And, at long last, some of the suburban inventory is moving. I heard last week that a spate of sales in Pine Orchard has reduced the available inventory drastically. Even things that have been for sale for a very long time have gone on deposit. That's good news for sellers, who have been consoling themselves with the thought that nothing was selling, while they sat with their houses unsold. If they aren't going now, it's time to re-examine the price, because we're experiencing a boost that should help everyone. And it's about time!

Referrals Everywhere

It's been a busy few weeks for people calling me to ask for help in selling real estate here and elsewhere. After all the talk about the Internet as a way to sell real estate oneself, and all the fears about the demise of our profession, it's heartening to see how many buyers and sellers out there know that they can use our help profitably. Even though all the studies show that the vast majority of transactions are done through real estate companies, there is a perception that that time has passed. It is true that the information buyers need can now be found online in many cases. What isn't true is that buyers don't need assistance in interpreting the data, in learning about a region, and in structuring an offer. And sellers are much the same. I've heard some talk about using Zillow to price a property, although it is very unreliable in certain areas. I've also known people who do their own marketing and even open houses. Much more often, though, I've heard people say how much they value having an intermediary in the negotiations, especially when they know the other party. What would seem to be an advantage--familiarity with the other side--makes most sellers and buyers very uncomfortable. The addition of professionals is highly comforting. At a time when saving money is chic, the use of real estate agents and agencies is a clear sign of their value. And you get what you pay for. As they say about lawyers ("he who represents himself has a fool for a client"), so goes the saying for sellers and buyers.

Almost Too Late to Beat the Spring Rush

Everyone knows that more homes get listed and sold in the spring season, mostly because of school schedules. People either start jobs at the start of an academic year, or want to have their kids into new schools by September. What isn't as settled by all experts is the ideal time in which to list during that season.

I'm a firm believer in the earlier, the better. It's hard to know exactly when the market will pop, but there are certainly signs already--lots of ads, lots of open houses, lots of calls. If you are a seller, you want to have your home on the market before all of the sales activity really begins. It takes time to get the paperwork processed, get the home ready, and set a price. If possible, you want to list before the vast majority of people do, so that early lookers will see your home when there aren't as many places from which to choose.

We don't know when the snow will stop for good, nor when the temperatures will really start to climb. We do know the school vacation schedule, the holiday schedule (and Easter is very late this year), and the traditional boom times. In our company, we believe this: It's best to begin right now. If you are thinking of selling, call your agent today!

Waiting for Spring

While I am snowed (or iced) in tonight--again!--I am thinking once again about how happy I am that real estate is not as time sensitive as some other industries. If you had a restaurant this week, or a theater, or an airline, you would be losing revenue that wouldn't be replaced, in many cases. With real estate, it's different. I was looking at Google Analytics tonight, which tells us how many people look at http://www.hpearce.com/, and from what sites those people reach us, and it was amazing. Every snowstorm for the past month had a huge spike upward, showing us that prospective buyers and sellers are using the downtime we've all experienced when there just isn't anything to do in all this snow, and they are using it to look for real estate on the Web. They can't get out to look at property (we didn't even officially open our offices today, preferring to leave the roads to those who absolutely need to get to work), but they certainly are thinking about it.

That's great news for us. We already know that a bad, snowy winter is usually devoid of sales, but that it is generally followed by a robust spring market. All that searching on the internet, and all that time cooped up inside, leads to a frenzy of springtime real estate activity. If that's the normal pattern, what on earth will we see this spring? Real estate flying off the MLS in April and May, we hope! So, if you are a potential seller, use this indoor time to de-clutter your home and do all those fix-it projects. If you are a potential buyer, keep surfing the net--we'll be waiting for you when the sun shines!

Thinking of Waiting for Spring?

At this time of year, we often hear people say that they are putting their searches for property on hold until the spring. While we understand the appeal of taking an item off the To Do list at this busy season, I want to point out the possible consequences.

Savvy buyers don't talk about the price of the property, they talk about the monthly payment. Current mortgage rates are so low that the cost of risking an increase in rates almost surely outstrips the risk that you might buy now and have prices decline slightly before they rise again. The low rates also trump any idea that you have to bargain for the last nickel. Take the deal, lock in the rate, and gloat later.

Many consumers are acutely aware of the aspects of this housing market that favor buyers. They therefore think that, regardless of what a property is listed for, they should offer 20% less. They seem to believe that sellers are desparate, and that they need to bottom fish in order to purchase now. Since only the well-priced properties in good condition are selling, it's not even really true, as I have pointed out before, that there are so many things to choose from that such a strategy can succeed.

Let me remind any such people that this market is not a zero-sum game. Both the sellers and the buyers can win. The sellers can sell and repurchase at the current lower prices, with the lower interest rates. The buyers can buy and also take advantage of these rates. Everyone can walk away better off. This is an unusual time in that respect. If you figure out what the monthly payment will be, you may discover that it makes far more sense to buy and move than to wait.

Today's Register Article on Home Sales

Today's business section has an article reporting that unit sales are down, but prices are "inching" up. This may surprise people, but it's important to remember how these statistics are compiled, and that's by adding all the sales in one time period and comparing them to all the sales combined in another time period. That's not an apples-to-apples comparison, unless by chance the same house sold in both periods, and you just looked at that sale.

With so many properties on the market, and the lagging state of the real estate industry, only the best homes are selling. By that, I mean the ones that are priced compellingly and are in close to pristine condition. There are some exceptions, especially in areas that are in demand and have less inventory, but in general only the "good" buys are selling.

What does that mean for sellers? Don't assume that your home is worth more than it was last year, and don't assume that you can price it aggressively. One of the most striking changes in the real estate field over the past 25 years is the amount of market knowledge available to, and often absorbed by, buyers. They know what your home is worth, and they aren't--except in the rarest of circumstances--going to pay more. If your house stands out, in price, location, appearance, or condition, you have a better chance of selling it. Those are the home sales showing up in the statistics. Adjust your expectations accordingly!

It's That Time of Year Again

Every year I write the same thing at this season, because every year it's true: the best time to buy real estate is between Halloween and Thanksgiving. Why is that? Because that's when sellers are most likely to accept an offer that makes a transaction either possible or particularly enticing to the buyer. As the weather gets colder, and thoughts of heating oil, plowing driveways, and holiday hiatuses on open houses and offers creep in, sellers weigh, as they should, the costs of carrying a property through the winter (for that is most likely what they will end up doing, if they don't sell by Thanksgiving) against the reality of an offer that is less than they want to accept. In addition, there's no guarantee that prices will even go up in the spring, and a outside chance that values could decline over the quiet months. As a further inducement, some sellers have tax reasons that make closing before the end of the year important or at least profitable. Although some people say that tax considerations could change with a new Congress, I think most would agree that uncertainty generally doesn't favor waiting when one is talking about the chances of taxes going either up or down. Even the economic news, which has seesawed over the past year, should make one cautious about holding out for better times.

This year, with so much inventory on the market, and so little time before the holiday season, it's especially important to consider pricing properties at levels that are not just correct, but compelling. Stand out from the crowd with a price that entices, and get your property sold while others just sit. And do it before the first flakes of snow hit the ground!

Not Enough Listings?

We were talking yesterday in a couple of offices about the current state of our listing inventory. While the average person might think that every third house is on the market as we speak, much of what is available is either shopworn, overpriced, or needs work. Today's buyers, who believe that they are in a buyers' market, expect that every week more properties will be listed, and that prices may even come down further. Therefore, they think that they can be--and they are--extremely picky about what they want.

While it is true that new properties come on the market each week, many of the new entries suffer from the same problems as the old ones--i.e., overpriced or need work. When we get buyers who are motivated and in a hurry, they often feel that they have surprisingly little inventory from which to choose a property. At the same time, we know that many sellers out there feel that they should wait to list until there are fewer signs in yards (not counting the ubiquitous political kind!). Properties that are in pristine condition, which would command top dollar, thus stay off the market, while their owners wait for a better time to sell.

Ironically, it would be hard to find a better time to list those particular properties. There are buyers out there, and there are more of them all the time that come out to look, as many feel that the recession is over, but rates are still low, and believe what we're all hearing, that this is the best time to buy in 50 years. Yet those buyers cannot get over the fact that they aren't seeing exactly what they want. Given the high inventory, they keep looking. They even think that they can find rooms painted in the colors they prefer. Most don't seem to want to do any work to the place of their dreams.

This mismatch between what buyers want and what sellers are offering leads us to believe that, although inventory is high, there are actually not enough listings on the market, of the type that will sell quickly. If you own a property like that, call us now. You may be pleasantly surprised at the results!

Open Houses

As the weather improves, we are seeing more and more open houses, and more and more buyers are showing up. I guess it's not surprising that many of them are first-time homebuyers, and I guess it's not surprising that many of them are unrepresented--that is, they come to the open house without an agent or an agency agreement.

Since many of these buyers are younger, it should stand to reason that they read about the open houses on the Internet, where we can put open house notices. Interestingly, we do get a fair number of visitors from newspaper ads, which seems old-fashioned for Gen X and Gen Y buyers. Some are just driving around and come in when they see the sign.

Many of us now do a goodly portion of our shopping on the web, but there are certain things that are hard to buy that way (although I do have a friend who bought a tuxedo for his son's wedding on the web, his wife made him buy another one in person!). Houses, despite better and better virtual tours, fall into that category. You have to look in person at the place you're going to buy.

The new generation of homebuyers doesn't want to plan ahead for house shopping, any more than they want to plan Saturday night early in the week. Therefore, open houses are the most efficient way of looking at properties without having to make an appointment, and hence the high number of buyers visiting open houses these days.

What does this mean for sellers? Ironically, the oldest means of advertising--signs and open houses--are once again at the forefront of our collection of sales tools. Overlook them at your peril, and keep an open mind. And, of course, clean and de-clutter your house!

The Phones are Ringing!

A new year and a new decade have started, and I've never heard so many people say that they were happy to put the old year behind them. We can tell that they've moved on, because our phones, even in Commercial, have taken a big leap from December. It will be a few weeks before we see the results, but, in the meantime, we're busy.

What does that mean for sellers and buyers? It means that people are coming off the sidelines. They've put their lives on hold for long enough. Even in commercial real estate, where there are dire predictions for the next couple of years, business goes on. The leases may be shorter and smaller, but space needs will prevail at some point.

Therefore, there will be competition for well-priced listings. Well-priced is the key here. There are still plenty of listings getting no play, but others go right away. The latter ones are perceived to be good deals. There are also a lot of short sales in the market; i.e., houses where there the proceeds will not cover the debt. Banks are required to get within a certain percentage of fair market value, so don't look for big bargains in that department.

If you're a serious buyer, buy now. You need to leave time to get through the whole sales process, and you don't want to miss out on the tax credits available. And please, don't assume that you can take 10 or 20% off the listed price (see paragraph above!).

If you're a serious seller, be realistic about the price. And list now, to get a jump on the competition.

A Warmer Winter?

To us, a warm winter is one with a lot of real estate sales! The recent extension and expansion of the homebuyers' tax credit gives us hope for the traditionally slower months. Because of the timing on the new bill, sellers and buyers should realize that they can't wait until the spring market. Buyers who have no home to sell (usually the first-time buyers) can probably put off finalizing a sale, since the contract must be signed by April 30,2010 and must close within 60 days, by June 30, 2010.

Many of the houses listed in the so-called "spring market" are still coming on the market even into May, so it won't be possible to wait until all the possible choices are available for viewing. Of course, if a buyer also has a house to sell, he or she should get started right away, since that could take up the intervening months. In addition, people should factor in extra time for mortgage approval, as we have been finding that the appraisal process in particular is taking far longer than it did before.

All of that leads to the conclusion that buyers who wish to take advantage of the tax credit cannot risk waiting until the spring rolls around. Since sellers certainly need to start soon, that argues for a busier winter than we're used to having. Don't forget that, although the holidays are busy and it's difficult to schedule showings, many homes look their best when decorated. In addition, the snowiest and iciest months are later in the winter, so now is better from that angle. It's also good to remember that it can pay to list when there isn't much around to compete. Once others realize that time is of the essence, you can already be negotiating your sale and moving on to a new purchase.

It's the Buying Time of Year Again

Our agents have heard me say this every year, but it's time to say it for this blog: The best time to buy a house is between Halloween and Thanksgiving. Sellers are ready to sell, as they start to pay heating bills, think about plowing, and head into the holidays. Buyers are mostly settled into new homes or forgetting about buying until spring. It's hard to show houses in the winter. There's snow and ice, not to mention cold. Parking and driveways can make open houses and showings tricky. Although many homes show well when they are decorated for the holidays, most families are busy at that time of year and don't want to have to keep their homes clutter-free and ready to show. Most buildings look better in light, and there isn't much of it in the dead of winter. All of that adds up to the realization that, if you haven't sold your home within the next three weeks, you probably aren't going to sell it until the spring.

Despite that chilling thought, there are sellers who want to move at this time of year. For one thing, some have tax reasons for wishing to close before year end. Some have jobs or commitments in other places. Some are tired of the selling process, and some have another home waiting for them. Some just want to spend the winter in a warmer place. All of those people are competing for the buyers still looking when winter comes. Therefore, if you are an eager seller, you are most likely to compromise on the price at this time of year.

Buyers can capitalize on these factors to negotiate for a better price as the weather gets cold, especially if the home is empty and sellers are worried about freezing pipes and empty oil tanks, or even just heating and plowing bills. This is the time of year when a month of expenses can easily become six months of expenses, and sellers will take that into account.

If you are a buyer, particularly a buyer with cash, here's your chance! Don't waste it--buy now.

Closings

Yesterday and today are the two biggest closing dates of the year, in no small part because no taxes need to be adjusted, as tax years run July 1st through June 30th. As a result, the tension level around real estate offices is very high these days. Not only are we dealing with all the problems of the current market, but sellers and buyers are under enormous stress, as they try to get into and out of homes quickly. Sometimes they are trying to get in while someone else is still trying to get out, which is one of the situations we've been faced with today.

It's the time I feel sorriest for real estate agents, who often take real abuse from overwrought clients. It's often that the clients disconnect their mouths from their brains, and blast the agent simply because he or she is lower on the food chain (meaning, simply because they can). Agents are usually very good about letting it roll off them, but they may not forget it quickly. I would write some of the things they say, but it wouldn't be family friendly!

In addition, agents often get asked to do the most menial tasks. Again, they usually comply, because they want their clients to be happy, but we have to laugh to ourselves. One agent's husband was amazed that she was driving 50 miles round trip this week at the request of her client, and buying a 6-pack of Coke and 2 Chicken a la King frozen dinners to be left in the refrigerator of a rental home.

It may be all in a day's work for the agent, but it's worth noting that they deserve some kudos for all that they do!

Signs and Selling

We have a few sellers who don't want signs on their properties. Sometimes, they also want us not to mail to the neighbors announcing the listing. Usually, they say that this is because they don't want their neighbors to know that they are selling! Since signs are the number one tool that agents have for selling property, and since many properties are sold to someone who already lives nearby, this is an odd reaction. Would you look for a job, but refuse to give out your resume? Would you try to get a part in a play, but not allow your agent to send information about you? Exposure is the key to successful selling in most cases. Especially since, when you think about it, once you sell these people won't be your neighbors anymore anyway!

The other misconception I find less surprising is that sellers think that they can sell their homes without benefit of a real estate agent and get more money. While it can be true that a seller could get lucky and know of a prospective buyer, he or she is not going to get more money if they do what is often the case. They advertise the property as "x dollars without an agent". In that case, don't you think that a buyer will expect that the money otherwise dedicated to the commission will go to him? Obviously, real estate professionals aren't helped by people selling their own properties, so I'm doubtless biased, but I find the approach unlikely to get more money for the seller. Plus, empirical evidence collected around the country suggests that most independent sellers get too little for their properties.

Now that I've vented, I should end by saying how busy the real estate market is this week. Let's hope it continues unabated!

Time to Reprice that Listing

There's a term in real estate called "chasing the market down", and it refers to people who start out by pricing their listings too high, and then continue to lower them month by month. It's a strategy that many sellers employ, and we agents are not immune to it ourselves, but the results are almost always poor. We can cite example after example of buildings and houses that sold BELOW what they would have sold for, if they'd only started out at the correct price. Now, I realize that "correct" is a term of art, and subject to disagreement. I also realize how tempting it is just to "test the market" at a high number. But you have to understand how the selling process works in order to see what a mistake it is.

A listing receives most attention when it's new, for a number of reasons. We notice signs when they're just erected. We notice pictures in ads when they're different from prior weeks. The same is true of the website. Also, agents and buyers who are receiving notifications of new listings are focusing on the ones that they haven't seen before. Most mailings are done on new listings. Most showings come as soon as something comes on the market. Everyone is motivated to see, consider, and buy something before it gets snatched up by someone else.

What that means for sellers is that you have wasted the most valuable exposure that your listing will receive. It's the same principle as the old saying that "you only get one chance to make a first impression". Every time the price comes down later, agents and buyers will have a subliminal impression that your property is overpriced, or that there's something wrong with it, since it's been on the market for so long. Why would you risk that, when our experience shows that people whose homes sell quickly for a lower price ultimately receive more than people who start out high, in order to "leave room to negotiate" or "see what they can get".

The moral is clear: If you're serious about selling, be serious from the start. Don't waste your time, your agent's time, or the attention span of the buying public. Consumers now are far more educated about prices, with the advent of the Internet. They'll know when you've entered the market with an attractive price, and your chances of selling, and selling quickly, will ratchet up. Take the money and move on. Buy another property while rates are low. Time is money.

Right now, our agents feel that almost 90% of our listings are priced too high to sell right away. Some of that is because, with declining prices, what was a good price 90 days ago may be too high now. Some is because there's just not enough selling right now (for example, only two houses closed in Madison in November). However, a great deal is because people don't understand what I just described above. You will have an advantgage--one you need in a difficult economy--if you do.

A snowy weekend

I'm sitting in my office waiting for the snow to begin. The first big snow of the season always leads to cancellations and traffic, but little real estate activity. Most of our activity this week has been in the form of office parties. Spirits have been surprisingly good, although maybe it's due to the spirits consumed! We've had many toasts to a better 2009.

What I am seeing, however, is that those listings that our offices collectively think are "well priced" have been selling. From one meeting to the next, more than half of those will have gone under contract. That's very surprising, considering that it seems as though nothing is selling. I guess that's because we're only talking about 5 percent or so of all the properties we have listed. I put quotation marks around well priced because it's so hard to know what that means now. Even if a seller took our advice when he or she listed it, it's probably lower now. Past sales are very little indication of what will happen today, and buyers are only signing if they perceive that they're getting a bargain. Believe it or not, there are still some multiple bid situations when that is the case. The internet provides so much information, and most buyers look at so many properties, that they know right away if they need to move quickly to lock something in before it sells to someone else. What does this mean for sellers? Your property must stand out in a sea of listings, and price is the most important factor for all but a very few.