Today's papers cite that national sales figures have risen in January, pushing the index used for measuring the health of the market to 97. The number used for a balanced market is 100, so we can see that things are not only getting better, but that they are approaching "normal". We need to remember that what we had in the middle of the last decade would be considered abnormally good, so there shouldn't be expectations that we will return to that dynamic any time soon. However, it is clear that there is pent-up demand out there, particularly from first-time buyers, and it is starting to seem likely that the momentum we are gaining will feed upon itself and lead to further upticks.
More spring weather, more home sales--what could be better??
Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Monday, January 30, 2012
Winter Weather
You might think that, in such an evolved society, with so many technological advances, weather wouldn't matter so much. But you would be wrong. Last winter, with storm after storm hitting our region, most people didn't work a full week until sometime in March. Most of us just hunkered down and waited for spring, which didn't even come early after all that snow.
This year, we've seen almost the opposite. We had that one freak snowstorm, which seemed like some kind of Ice Age event, as opposed to the start of winter, and very little since then. The first winter storm came on a Saturday morning, when many people did not have to be on the roads, and it melted quickly.
So, you may ask, how does that relate to real estate? The harsher the winter, the slower the spring market, and vice versa. People want their homes listed before the spring rush, but it's not always clear when that will be. It won't be before the streets and sidewalks are cleared. Even though a bad winter should keep people indoors, getting ready to move, it doesn't seem to work that way. Until they can come out from under blankets--either of snow or the literal kind--they don't get their homes ready to list.
Since this year has so far proven to be mild, we are anticipating that the spring market may come early. I'm writing this too early to know what the groundhog is going to do later this week, but I want to get in an early warning: Get ready before the market takes off without you, whether you are a buyer or a seller. Be ready to go when it pops. And that means, this year, that it's already time to begin.
This year, we've seen almost the opposite. We had that one freak snowstorm, which seemed like some kind of Ice Age event, as opposed to the start of winter, and very little since then. The first winter storm came on a Saturday morning, when many people did not have to be on the roads, and it melted quickly.
So, you may ask, how does that relate to real estate? The harsher the winter, the slower the spring market, and vice versa. People want their homes listed before the spring rush, but it's not always clear when that will be. It won't be before the streets and sidewalks are cleared. Even though a bad winter should keep people indoors, getting ready to move, it doesn't seem to work that way. Until they can come out from under blankets--either of snow or the literal kind--they don't get their homes ready to list.
Since this year has so far proven to be mild, we are anticipating that the spring market may come early. I'm writing this too early to know what the groundhog is going to do later this week, but I want to get in an early warning: Get ready before the market takes off without you, whether you are a buyer or a seller. Be ready to go when it pops. And that means, this year, that it's already time to begin.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
The calm after the storm
Well, I'm writing this on the first full day that I've had both power and Internet. It's been a long ten days! We were very lucky, considering that our house was right on the water, to have had no damage, and I would take a little power interruption over damage anytime. However, when the cell towers started fading and my Blackberry stopped working, and I had to think about whether I wanted to do a training run if I couldn't take a shower, and we had our third meal of packaged Indian eggplant curry in a row, we did start dreaming about electricity! There was a lot of damage in our neighborhood, but fortunately no one got hurt. Because the weather was exceptionally beautiful last week, an amazing amount of cleanup got done in a short time. The crew that turned on our power came from Ohio, and others I know welcomed crews from Canada, Kansas, and other far-flung places.
The whole experience reminds us how powerful weather can be. We saw buckled parking lots and patios, smashed garage doors and broken seawalls, all from water at high tide. The wind did far less damage around us than the tide did. Roads washed out and kept us home, reading by flashlight.
The calm after the storm includes closings. Some of the banks are requiring that things set to close get reappraised. I cannot imagine why, as any buyer would check before he/she plunked down money; that would seem to be protection enough. Regulation comes to everything, and, where it doesn't, the opposite of common sense seems to prevail. In the end, we had no closings cancelled after Hurricane Gloria, so let's hope that Tropical Storm Irene proves to be the same.
And let's give a cheer for power!
The whole experience reminds us how powerful weather can be. We saw buckled parking lots and patios, smashed garage doors and broken seawalls, all from water at high tide. The wind did far less damage around us than the tide did. Roads washed out and kept us home, reading by flashlight.
The calm after the storm includes closings. Some of the banks are requiring that things set to close get reappraised. I cannot imagine why, as any buyer would check before he/she plunked down money; that would seem to be protection enough. Regulation comes to everything, and, where it doesn't, the opposite of common sense seems to prevail. In the end, we had no closings cancelled after Hurricane Gloria, so let's hope that Tropical Storm Irene proves to be the same.
And let's give a cheer for power!
Monday, May 16, 2011
Will It Ever Stop Raining??
You must wonder what IS good for real estate, if we complain about snow and we complain about rain and we complain about heat and we complain about sunshine, but the truth is that people look at real estate when the weather is good but not too good. There is a human aversion to getting wet (although my dog seems to share it...) that keeps people indoors when it's pouring. There is also a natural tendency to want to go somewhere outdoors when the weather is beautiful. That leaves in between days to shop for property. Rain may be better than snow, because it doesn't fill up your driveway, and both are probably preferable to ice, but nothing that causes gray skies is ideal for showing property. Not too much looks good in gloomy light.
So we know that we're not the only ones wishing that the sun would come out, but we have our reasons. And they just add to all the other reasons that we--and you--are ready for spring!
So we know that we're not the only ones wishing that the sun would come out, but we have our reasons. And they just add to all the other reasons that we--and you--are ready for spring!
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Not the Usual Pattern
It's not just the weather that's unusual these days. The state of the real estate market is abnormal as well. Generally speaking, real estate leads into a recession and out of a recession, with commercial real estate following residential trends nine months to a year later.
This time, we did lead into the recession, with the peak of prices and demand coming in about 2005, and falling every year since then. The big dip in the financial markets didn't happen for another three years, and, while the banks look as though they've come roaring out of the doldrums, real estate has not recovered. In fact, many economists say that only real estate has not begun to recover.
Why was this cycle different? For one thing, it was in many ways the perfect storm. One thing after another conspired to keep real estate from improving. More importantly, the one thing the government did do--the homebuyer tax credit--didn't work enough, and sent things crashing back down. Think of a ball that rolls uphill, but not quite to the top, and the speed with which it then comes back down, and replace that image with real estate. The most important factor, in my opinion, is that the government did help everybody else with actual cash--the banks, the insurance companies, and the automakers--leaving us essentially to fend for ourselves. As a result, we suffered even more than we otherwise would have, since the pain was not spread evenly.
If I sound as though I think that it was all a little unfair, that's true. And I'm more than a little tired of this market, as are all of my coworkers and industry compatriots. Instead of leading the country out of recession, we're still lagging. It looks as though we're in for another year of glacially-paced improvement, and maybe a couple of more years of slow progress before we really see good, or at least normal, times. The spring buying season will tell us a lot more, and, this time, I hope I'm wrong about the pace of recovery!
This time, we did lead into the recession, with the peak of prices and demand coming in about 2005, and falling every year since then. The big dip in the financial markets didn't happen for another three years, and, while the banks look as though they've come roaring out of the doldrums, real estate has not recovered. In fact, many economists say that only real estate has not begun to recover.
Why was this cycle different? For one thing, it was in many ways the perfect storm. One thing after another conspired to keep real estate from improving. More importantly, the one thing the government did do--the homebuyer tax credit--didn't work enough, and sent things crashing back down. Think of a ball that rolls uphill, but not quite to the top, and the speed with which it then comes back down, and replace that image with real estate. The most important factor, in my opinion, is that the government did help everybody else with actual cash--the banks, the insurance companies, and the automakers--leaving us essentially to fend for ourselves. As a result, we suffered even more than we otherwise would have, since the pain was not spread evenly.
If I sound as though I think that it was all a little unfair, that's true. And I'm more than a little tired of this market, as are all of my coworkers and industry compatriots. Instead of leading the country out of recession, we're still lagging. It looks as though we're in for another year of glacially-paced improvement, and maybe a couple of more years of slow progress before we really see good, or at least normal, times. The spring buying season will tell us a lot more, and, this time, I hope I'm wrong about the pace of recovery!
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Open Houses
As the weather improves, we are seeing more and more open houses, and more and more buyers are showing up. I guess it's not surprising that many of them are first-time homebuyers, and I guess it's not surprising that many of them are unrepresented--that is, they come to the open house without an agent or an agency agreement.
Since many of these buyers are younger, it should stand to reason that they read about the open houses on the Internet, where we can put open house notices. Interestingly, we do get a fair number of visitors from newspaper ads, which seems old-fashioned for Gen X and Gen Y buyers. Some are just driving around and come in when they see the sign.
Many of us now do a goodly portion of our shopping on the web, but there are certain things that are hard to buy that way (although I do have a friend who bought a tuxedo for his son's wedding on the web, his wife made him buy another one in person!). Houses, despite better and better virtual tours, fall into that category. You have to look in person at the place you're going to buy.
The new generation of homebuyers doesn't want to plan ahead for house shopping, any more than they want to plan Saturday night early in the week. Therefore, open houses are the most efficient way of looking at properties without having to make an appointment, and hence the high number of buyers visiting open houses these days.
What does this mean for sellers? Ironically, the oldest means of advertising--signs and open houses--are once again at the forefront of our collection of sales tools. Overlook them at your peril, and keep an open mind. And, of course, clean and de-clutter your house!
Since many of these buyers are younger, it should stand to reason that they read about the open houses on the Internet, where we can put open house notices. Interestingly, we do get a fair number of visitors from newspaper ads, which seems old-fashioned for Gen X and Gen Y buyers. Some are just driving around and come in when they see the sign.
Many of us now do a goodly portion of our shopping on the web, but there are certain things that are hard to buy that way (although I do have a friend who bought a tuxedo for his son's wedding on the web, his wife made him buy another one in person!). Houses, despite better and better virtual tours, fall into that category. You have to look in person at the place you're going to buy.
The new generation of homebuyers doesn't want to plan ahead for house shopping, any more than they want to plan Saturday night early in the week. Therefore, open houses are the most efficient way of looking at properties without having to make an appointment, and hence the high number of buyers visiting open houses these days.
What does this mean for sellers? Ironically, the oldest means of advertising--signs and open houses--are once again at the forefront of our collection of sales tools. Overlook them at your peril, and keep an open mind. And, of course, clean and de-clutter your house!
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Spring!
Now that the weather has finally improved, we're noticing a lot of activity with calls and open house visits. We are seeing people holding back on making decisions, however, with the idea that they will have more to choose from soon. We think that there's plenty to choose from already!
While many more houses will come onto the market in the next month or two, they will come on at the higher prices that owners think they can command in springtime. They also will move quickly if they are still considered bargains.
I guess the conclusion you would draw from this data, as a buyer, depends upon whether you believe in the "one person for each person" theory of marriage, or whether you think that a number of people could have been your ideal match, based on the circumstances. If you fall into the latter category, you would tend to support that concept in househunting as well, and feel that there might be several good choices you could make at any given time. As someone who has been married for a long time, I would also add that it's easier to change what you don't like about the house you buy than what you don't like about the spouse you pick!
In our office, whatever the view about the above questions, there's a general impatience with all the waiting around. We're ready to write those offers!
While many more houses will come onto the market in the next month or two, they will come on at the higher prices that owners think they can command in springtime. They also will move quickly if they are still considered bargains.
I guess the conclusion you would draw from this data, as a buyer, depends upon whether you believe in the "one person for each person" theory of marriage, or whether you think that a number of people could have been your ideal match, based on the circumstances. If you fall into the latter category, you would tend to support that concept in househunting as well, and feel that there might be several good choices you could make at any given time. As someone who has been married for a long time, I would also add that it's easier to change what you don't like about the house you buy than what you don't like about the spouse you pick!
In our office, whatever the view about the above questions, there's a general impatience with all the waiting around. We're ready to write those offers!
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Snowing Again
It's snowing tonight in Guilford, and it seems to have been snowing quite a lot lately. When our kids were little, they used to get excited by snow, and hope for a day off from school. The phone would ring, and I would tell them that it was the sound of people cancelling their real estate appointments. No school, no showings. Although that was a decade ago, things haven't changed. When the weather is bad enough, no one looks at real estate.
We're lucky that we aren't in a business where a day like today means that those sales can never be made up at another time. If a plane takes off with empty seats, or a theater has no patrons, that's money down the drain. At least most people looking for property will look again on a nicer day. Generally, it's not an impulse purchase, or a date-specific one.
There are also the issues of showings and open houses. Unless everything is perfectly plowed, it can be tricky to have buyers coming in on icy sidewalks. It's often hard to park with snow piled on the sides of streets. And few places look their best with wintry boots and shoes tracking the outside slush onto rugs and floors.
I wonder if the Internet has changed all this for us. When you're home due to cancellations, as I am this evening, do you go online and shop for your dream home? Or a vacation place? Or the new location your business needs? We hope so!
We're lucky that we aren't in a business where a day like today means that those sales can never be made up at another time. If a plane takes off with empty seats, or a theater has no patrons, that's money down the drain. At least most people looking for property will look again on a nicer day. Generally, it's not an impulse purchase, or a date-specific one.
There are also the issues of showings and open houses. Unless everything is perfectly plowed, it can be tricky to have buyers coming in on icy sidewalks. It's often hard to park with snow piled on the sides of streets. And few places look their best with wintry boots and shoes tracking the outside slush onto rugs and floors.
I wonder if the Internet has changed all this for us. When you're home due to cancellations, as I am this evening, do you go online and shop for your dream home? Or a vacation place? Or the new location your business needs? We hope so!
Friday, February 13, 2009
Interest Rate Update
Now that the weather has moderated a little, we're starting to see some activity in the real estate market. One question on everyone's mind is the forecast for interest rates over the next few months. It's particularly true for those who are refinancing, since some banks allow you to take one "drop" between commitment and closing. Therefore, people want to know whether rates will go down more.
Of course, the correct answer is: Who knows? But I think most betting people feel that the governmental stimulus and drive to improve the economy will result in incentives of every kind that could possibly help the housing market. That would argue for lower rates to come. I don't think they'll be much lower, or for much longer, since banks are paying 5% for the TARP money. So how long can they really afford to loan it out at less than 5%?
So, if they are going to go down to 4 and 1/2, even for a little while, why not wait? The answer to that lies in the fine print. Fannie Mae, which drives a lot of bank lending policy, has quietly been raising the standards on loans. FICO credit scores to qualify for the best rates are rising, and higher rates are imposed when there is a higher loan-to-value ratio being sought. Translation: The rate might be slightly lower for some amount of time, but it will be harder for most people without excellent credit and enough cash for a substantial downpayment to qualify for that rate. When you take those factors into account, you will almost certainly come down on the side of buying or refinancing as soon as possible.
I should point out, in the nature of a disclaimer, that I do not have Obama's private Blackberry address, so these thoughts are my own, based upon reading public materials! And, given all that's going on, I'm sure there will be more news to follow.
Of course, the correct answer is: Who knows? But I think most betting people feel that the governmental stimulus and drive to improve the economy will result in incentives of every kind that could possibly help the housing market. That would argue for lower rates to come. I don't think they'll be much lower, or for much longer, since banks are paying 5% for the TARP money. So how long can they really afford to loan it out at less than 5%?
So, if they are going to go down to 4 and 1/2, even for a little while, why not wait? The answer to that lies in the fine print. Fannie Mae, which drives a lot of bank lending policy, has quietly been raising the standards on loans. FICO credit scores to qualify for the best rates are rising, and higher rates are imposed when there is a higher loan-to-value ratio being sought. Translation: The rate might be slightly lower for some amount of time, but it will be harder for most people without excellent credit and enough cash for a substantial downpayment to qualify for that rate. When you take those factors into account, you will almost certainly come down on the side of buying or refinancing as soon as possible.
I should point out, in the nature of a disclaimer, that I do not have Obama's private Blackberry address, so these thoughts are my own, based upon reading public materials! And, given all that's going on, I'm sure there will be more news to follow.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
I agree with Nelly
Nelly's comment about the weather and 2009 rings true here in Guilford, where the wind is whipping around the house at gusts, they say on the news, up to 60 mph! It's been so windy this winter so far that I'm beginning to think it has something to do with the economy, like the dust storms in the 30s. It feels like winter everywhere. I'm raising my glass tonight to a better '09, a healthier real estate market, and good health and prosperity for all our associates, employees, clients, and friends.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)