It's hard to believe that there could have been another storm bigger than the two we had last year about this time, but here it came! The pictures are unbelievable, and I saw a lot while I was out running this morning, but during the storm, it was hard to see much.
We were in a mandatory evacuation zone. My husband, being the typical "defend your homestead" male, refused to leave, so the dog and I retreated from the waterfront to the home of friends in the city of New Haven. They have power, and food, and wine, so life is good! I stayed in and worked on catching up from the hectic week I had last week. Since I had meetings in NYC that were all cancelled for me, I was free to stay inside and work from the comfort of (someone else's) home. I actually went running first thing, about 6:30 on Monday morning, and it was a little windy, especially in one direction, but nothing that would have been that notable. I was all alone, however, as my friends all slept in. It got windier as the day went on, and there were periods of rain, but it didn't, from our vantage point, seem much different from Irene. I kept calling home for a report from the waterfront. My husband said that it was beautiful, with high, high tides and not too much wind. No damage, but the power flickered and then went out about 5 PM last night. I can't even get the Status page to come up on the CL&P site, and I don't take that as a good sign...89% of Guilford is without power, so we are not alone. I can't get back, due to flooding on our road. I'm thinking of visiting at low tide tonight, but I'm not sure that I want to stay without power with the shorter days and longer nights of late October, even though it's plenty warm enough. One solid week without power last August was enough for me! Here's hoping that we get it back before the food is all ruined!
Showing posts with label guilford. Show all posts
Showing posts with label guilford. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Friday, August 26, 2011
Some New Statistics
Just before the beginning of the fall selling season, it's a good idea to review some of the facts we know about the current state of real estate. We know that Guilford, for example, has twice as many homes on the market now as have been sold since the beginning of the year. By definition, that constitutes a buyer's market. We know that pricing high is almost never the way to go, because one of our agents did an analysis of a shoreline agent at another company. This second agent was known for taking listings at high prices, so we looked at what the sales results were, and the answer was striking, but not surprising. The agent who lists high sold properties at an average of 59% of the listing price, while most other agents in the same area sold their listings at over 90% of the listing price.
The final statistic comes from my smart friend in Madison, Wisconsin, whom I've mentioned before, because his market seems to be so much like ours. He studied the phenomenon of "chasing the market down", which I've blogged about previously. He looked at the selling experience of sellers who priced correctly from the start, and compared their results to those of sellers who just wanted to "test the market" or who priced their properties above what agents thought they should be for other reasons. The sellers who priced correctly from the start got 12% more for their properties in half the time.
What else do I need to say?
The final statistic comes from my smart friend in Madison, Wisconsin, whom I've mentioned before, because his market seems to be so much like ours. He studied the phenomenon of "chasing the market down", which I've blogged about previously. He looked at the selling experience of sellers who priced correctly from the start, and compared their results to those of sellers who just wanted to "test the market" or who priced their properties above what agents thought they should be for other reasons. The sellers who priced correctly from the start got 12% more for their properties in half the time.
What else do I need to say?
Monday, March 14, 2011
Statistics from the Region
It's tempting to make you all guess about market trends for 2010, but it would be hard for me to collect the responses in a timely way, so I guess I will just tell you. The latest Commercial Record shows that, for year over year sales from 2009 to 2010, New Haven County as a whole was down almost 8% in the number of sales. For the immediate towns, Guilford, Madison, North Haven, and Bethany had an increase from the prior year. Guilford and Madison were each up 9%, while the other two had smaller increases.
Surprisingly, the median prices were almost identical in 2009 and 2010, with 2010 coming in at 0.8% less. I expect that most of you would have guessed that prices fell about 10%, so the fact that they actually fell less than one percent is very good news. Of course, as I've often pointed out, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison, so it's probably true that only the best houses sold, meaning that most homes would have sold for less in 2010 than in the prior year. As I've discussed in earlier posts, East Rock and Spring Glen did go up in price, showing the "Yale" effect most strongly. North Branford, with 24% fewer sales, had an increase of 10%, and Milford, Wallingford, and Woodbridge had smaller increases. New Haven as a whole crept up 1%.
It is important to recognize, as the issue said in another article, that this is the sixth year in a row that sales have declined. Since prices have also been declining for most of that period, the total decline is larger than what is listed for last year. And, since most homeowners looking to sell haven't been in the market for some time, those yearly decreases can really add up.
However, the fact that we are not in freefall is very good news, and the spring is still ahead of us. Anything could happen, but we're hoping for recovery mode to kick in strongly!
Surprisingly, the median prices were almost identical in 2009 and 2010, with 2010 coming in at 0.8% less. I expect that most of you would have guessed that prices fell about 10%, so the fact that they actually fell less than one percent is very good news. Of course, as I've often pointed out, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison, so it's probably true that only the best houses sold, meaning that most homes would have sold for less in 2010 than in the prior year. As I've discussed in earlier posts, East Rock and Spring Glen did go up in price, showing the "Yale" effect most strongly. North Branford, with 24% fewer sales, had an increase of 10%, and Milford, Wallingford, and Woodbridge had smaller increases. New Haven as a whole crept up 1%.
It is important to recognize, as the issue said in another article, that this is the sixth year in a row that sales have declined. Since prices have also been declining for most of that period, the total decline is larger than what is listed for last year. And, since most homeowners looking to sell haven't been in the market for some time, those yearly decreases can really add up.
However, the fact that we are not in freefall is very good news, and the spring is still ahead of us. Anything could happen, but we're hoping for recovery mode to kick in strongly!
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Prices Holding Steady
When we look at the real estate market statistics from last year in Greater New Haven, we don't have much to crow about. All around, it was a blah year, made that way mainly after the tax credits expired in June. However, one thing that is surprising is that the prices didn't go down as much as you might think. Our Guilford office had a mean sales price only 1% or so down from 2009. Our market as a whole was down about 2.9%.
Those figures don't jibe with what the average person on the street thinks. Why is perception so different? One reason is that many things didn't sell at all, and, if they did, they had been reduced one or more times before they went under contract. Also, as we must always point out, these statistics are not the same as in other industries, because the same homes aren't selling every year. Therefore, the particular mix of homes could change, although that is less true when you look at numbers over a whole year. So it could have been that the home that sold for $330,000 in 2010 was as good or better than the average $340,000 one from the year before.
What the numbers do show is that people went for value. Properties that sold were in good to excellent condition, in established neighborhoods, and were priced to sell. Buyers tended to feel that they were in the driver's seat, and could choose among a broad range of options (which, as I've discussed before, was less true than they thought--another example of mistaken perceptions trumping reality).
What does it bode for this year? Value is still important. Basic conservatism will still prevail. Sellers who don't have to sell will still not sell unless and until they can avoid steep cuts. Buyers will continue to be fussy. But, finally, the market will improve. Maybe slowly, but clearly. And we can't wait!
Those figures don't jibe with what the average person on the street thinks. Why is perception so different? One reason is that many things didn't sell at all, and, if they did, they had been reduced one or more times before they went under contract. Also, as we must always point out, these statistics are not the same as in other industries, because the same homes aren't selling every year. Therefore, the particular mix of homes could change, although that is less true when you look at numbers over a whole year. So it could have been that the home that sold for $330,000 in 2010 was as good or better than the average $340,000 one from the year before.
What the numbers do show is that people went for value. Properties that sold were in good to excellent condition, in established neighborhoods, and were priced to sell. Buyers tended to feel that they were in the driver's seat, and could choose among a broad range of options (which, as I've discussed before, was less true than they thought--another example of mistaken perceptions trumping reality).
What does it bode for this year? Value is still important. Basic conservatism will still prevail. Sellers who don't have to sell will still not sell unless and until they can avoid steep cuts. Buyers will continue to be fussy. But, finally, the market will improve. Maybe slowly, but clearly. And we can't wait!
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Second Quarter Results
We just released second quarter statistics from the Greater New Haven region, which showed a major uptick from the same quarter of last year. Of course, the homebuyer tax credit was expiring, so there was a rush to close units while that was still in place. Also, however bad the economy still is, there is some national sense that things are better than in 2009, and the base of comparison was therefore low.
Within the region, Guilford and Woodbridge had the highest prices, with Madison coming in third. Prices generally went down from the second quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, and then climbed in the second quarter of this year. Unit sales went up more sharply, rising 20% from last year's second quarter through this year at the same time.
It would be interesting to know how many of the sales were from properties which have been on the market for a long time, languishing at high prices, where a price reduction sparked an offer. Anecdotally, we know that many of the stories we hear involve sellers who are finally putting things on where they will sell. They are helped in their efforts by mortgage rates, which are so low that they allow for buyers to feel that they are getting a good deal, based on monthly payments. A recent article in a national paper suggested that buyers are trading up as a way to lock in cheap money. Let's hope so!
Within the region, Guilford and Woodbridge had the highest prices, with Madison coming in third. Prices generally went down from the second quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, and then climbed in the second quarter of this year. Unit sales went up more sharply, rising 20% from last year's second quarter through this year at the same time.
It would be interesting to know how many of the sales were from properties which have been on the market for a long time, languishing at high prices, where a price reduction sparked an offer. Anecdotally, we know that many of the stories we hear involve sellers who are finally putting things on where they will sell. They are helped in their efforts by mortgage rates, which are so low that they allow for buyers to feel that they are getting a good deal, based on monthly payments. A recent article in a national paper suggested that buyers are trading up as a way to lock in cheap money. Let's hope so!
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Waterfront Statistics
Since I've been blogging about prices and trends in New Haven compared with its suburbs, I was prompted to look at the shoreline statistics. Since we've been talking about the upper end of the city market, we checked sales of waterfront property since the beginning of the year. Taking Branford, Guilford, and Madison, a dozen homes on the water over $1 million (which we assumed meant all but an anomoly) sold in the first six months of 2010. They stayed on the market anywhere from one day to over 600 days, and none sold for the full listing price. The lowest listing to sales ratio was 62%, although most I calculated were in the 85% range, with only a couple selling at over 90% of the listed price. One was in Branford, three were in Guilford, and the rest were in Madison.
While this is an exceptionally low number of sales in that period of time, it does tend to confirm the idea expressed in earlier pieces that the City of New Haven is outperforming other high-end areas. The surprising thing about this particular comparison is that waterfront is the ultimate example of location, location, location. The most frequent comment on its primacy as an investment choice is that "they're not making any more of it". When even that theory fails to prompt sales, especially during a time when the traditional hoped-for investment bankers are doing well enough to buy waterfront summer homes, there's cause for real concern about the economy. Let's hope that the next quarter shows a different result.
While this is an exceptionally low number of sales in that period of time, it does tend to confirm the idea expressed in earlier pieces that the City of New Haven is outperforming other high-end areas. The surprising thing about this particular comparison is that waterfront is the ultimate example of location, location, location. The most frequent comment on its primacy as an investment choice is that "they're not making any more of it". When even that theory fails to prompt sales, especially during a time when the traditional hoped-for investment bankers are doing well enough to buy waterfront summer homes, there's cause for real concern about the economy. Let's hope that the next quarter shows a different result.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Snowing Again
It's snowing tonight in Guilford, and it seems to have been snowing quite a lot lately. When our kids were little, they used to get excited by snow, and hope for a day off from school. The phone would ring, and I would tell them that it was the sound of people cancelling their real estate appointments. No school, no showings. Although that was a decade ago, things haven't changed. When the weather is bad enough, no one looks at real estate.
We're lucky that we aren't in a business where a day like today means that those sales can never be made up at another time. If a plane takes off with empty seats, or a theater has no patrons, that's money down the drain. At least most people looking for property will look again on a nicer day. Generally, it's not an impulse purchase, or a date-specific one.
There are also the issues of showings and open houses. Unless everything is perfectly plowed, it can be tricky to have buyers coming in on icy sidewalks. It's often hard to park with snow piled on the sides of streets. And few places look their best with wintry boots and shoes tracking the outside slush onto rugs and floors.
I wonder if the Internet has changed all this for us. When you're home due to cancellations, as I am this evening, do you go online and shop for your dream home? Or a vacation place? Or the new location your business needs? We hope so!
We're lucky that we aren't in a business where a day like today means that those sales can never be made up at another time. If a plane takes off with empty seats, or a theater has no patrons, that's money down the drain. At least most people looking for property will look again on a nicer day. Generally, it's not an impulse purchase, or a date-specific one.
There are also the issues of showings and open houses. Unless everything is perfectly plowed, it can be tricky to have buyers coming in on icy sidewalks. It's often hard to park with snow piled on the sides of streets. And few places look their best with wintry boots and shoes tracking the outside slush onto rugs and floors.
I wonder if the Internet has changed all this for us. When you're home due to cancellations, as I am this evening, do you go online and shop for your dream home? Or a vacation place? Or the new location your business needs? We hope so!
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Declining Markets
We recently received a list of "declining markets", as defined by AIG (some irony there, huh?) for appraisal purposes. Some states--Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan, and Nevada--are considered Severely Declining in their entireties. Our county has a list of declining markets, defined by zip codes, which appears to cover almost every town in our region. Hartford's noted zip codes are listed as Moderately Declining.
What this means is that, when you go to get a mortgage in an area marked as Declining, you are subject to certain restrictions or rate adjustments, in order to protect the lender. Therefore, since a town like Guilford is on this list, everything in Guilford will be subject to a higher rate for the same LTV (loan-to-value) ratio than a property listed in, say, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
I chose Cambridge for several reasons: it's like New Haven in some obvious ways; it's still in the Northeast, where real estate sales are broadly down; and, finally, I knew the zip code. In case you thought New Haven might be spared, 06511 through 06515 are all there as well.
This may make it easier to understand why so many sales are falling apart after the contracts are signed, since people may not be aware of these rules before they actually sign a sales agreement on a particular house. They may have been counting on getting a higher LTV, or a lower rate, both of which may have been advertised, but then are not applicable in the zip code in which they are buying.
It's hard to know how to fix this problem, but it needs to be addressed if we are going to break the cycle of lagging real estate transactions. This rule is not only arbitrary, since there are submarkets within these areas which are selling well and where prices are not declining, but lags in time as well, being based on prior sales. In addition, it punishes those who most need to sell, but throwing another roadblock in the way of their attempts to find buyers.
What this means is that, when you go to get a mortgage in an area marked as Declining, you are subject to certain restrictions or rate adjustments, in order to protect the lender. Therefore, since a town like Guilford is on this list, everything in Guilford will be subject to a higher rate for the same LTV (loan-to-value) ratio than a property listed in, say, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
I chose Cambridge for several reasons: it's like New Haven in some obvious ways; it's still in the Northeast, where real estate sales are broadly down; and, finally, I knew the zip code. In case you thought New Haven might be spared, 06511 through 06515 are all there as well.
This may make it easier to understand why so many sales are falling apart after the contracts are signed, since people may not be aware of these rules before they actually sign a sales agreement on a particular house. They may have been counting on getting a higher LTV, or a lower rate, both of which may have been advertised, but then are not applicable in the zip code in which they are buying.
It's hard to know how to fix this problem, but it needs to be addressed if we are going to break the cycle of lagging real estate transactions. This rule is not only arbitrary, since there are submarkets within these areas which are selling well and where prices are not declining, but lags in time as well, being based on prior sales. In addition, it punishes those who most need to sell, but throwing another roadblock in the way of their attempts to find buyers.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Summing up 2008
As the new year begins, we're taking stock of how we ended last year. The news is not quite as bleak at H. Pearce as one might have thought. We're down a little over 15% in commissions earned from the year before. Since that takes into account that prices fell, reducing commissions due, plus that numbers of sales fell, we did very well compared to the market as a whole. One of the agents brought in a check on December 31st and told me that 2008 was her best year ever. More agents than I would have thought could say the same thing. In fact, a couple of months ago I checked an earnings report, and noted that 52% of our agents were ahead at that point of their earnings from 2007. That may have changed somewhat by the end of the year, but probably not by that much. It shows that, in this difficult market, whom you choose to sell your property matters. Good agents are more valuable than ever.
We're still waiting to see whether we made a profit as a company in 2008. It's close enough that we can't tell yet. That's good news in this economy! We look forward to making money in 2009, in part by concentrating on the things that will increase: relocation; rentals; appraisals; refinancings; and short sales, in addition to our regular business.
On another note, the running season began with a very cold and snowy Frostbite 5K in Guilford on Thursday morning. The sun was bright, but the snow wasn't all melted and the winds were whipping across the Guilford fairgrounds and the town dock, so all the times were slow. Well over 300 people braved the elements, though. Joel Galvin represented H. Pearce with his wife, Nan, as they helped to man the Guilford Rotary benefit race.
We're still waiting to see whether we made a profit as a company in 2008. It's close enough that we can't tell yet. That's good news in this economy! We look forward to making money in 2009, in part by concentrating on the things that will increase: relocation; rentals; appraisals; refinancings; and short sales, in addition to our regular business.
On another note, the running season began with a very cold and snowy Frostbite 5K in Guilford on Thursday morning. The sun was bright, but the snow wasn't all melted and the winds were whipping across the Guilford fairgrounds and the town dock, so all the times were slow. Well over 300 people braved the elements, though. Joel Galvin represented H. Pearce with his wife, Nan, as they helped to man the Guilford Rotary benefit race.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
I agree with Nelly
Nelly's comment about the weather and 2009 rings true here in Guilford, where the wind is whipping around the house at gusts, they say on the news, up to 60 mph! It's been so windy this winter so far that I'm beginning to think it has something to do with the economy, like the dust storms in the 30s. It feels like winter everywhere. I'm raising my glass tonight to a better '09, a healthier real estate market, and good health and prosperity for all our associates, employees, clients, and friends.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
OK, Enough Snow!
Well, we were waiting for the snow and we got it! Once the snow started on Friday, it came down so fast that going home was an adventure. I tried to dig out the car closest to the bottom of the driveway so I could go to yoga on Saturday morning, but couldn't do it. Saturday night, all four of us took that bottom car to a party in Norwalk, and ended up pushing it off the driveway at midnight that night. Sunday was another day when none of us went anywhere; there is a downside to living in the highest-up house on Long Island Sound in Connecticut! We're 85 feet above sea level, and the water is right at the bottom of our driveway. If we miss the road by much, we're toast. Our plowing company had gone out of business since last winter, but hadn't bothered to tell us, so a BIG thank you to George Sanders of West Lake Landscaping, who saved the day (or night) by plowing us out on Saturday night. In the interim, we missed a couple of parties, but no days of work. Nature becomes much more important when you live so close to the water. When it's not snow or ice, it's flooding on Old Quarry Road or Route 146.
All that ice means that I haven't been running, either. I can't wait to get out there again! I'm just too clumsy to take the risk of falling. All those Christmas cookies and no exercise is not a good combination, though.
Our New York Times did come on all those days, however, and I got to read about Carl Icahn's suit against Realogy. Realogy is the parent corporation of Coldwell Banker, C21, Sotheby's, ERA, and CB Commercial. They have a LOT of debt, and they were trying to restructure by replacing the debt people already held with less debt of a higher caliber. Carl Icahn didn't like that, and the court agreed with him. It may be tough to be an independent company in this market, but at least we don't have billions of dollars of debt. Now they're looking for another way to restructure. Maybe they'll start by spending only what they have to spend--there's a novel idea!
All that ice means that I haven't been running, either. I can't wait to get out there again! I'm just too clumsy to take the risk of falling. All those Christmas cookies and no exercise is not a good combination, though.
Our New York Times did come on all those days, however, and I got to read about Carl Icahn's suit against Realogy. Realogy is the parent corporation of Coldwell Banker, C21, Sotheby's, ERA, and CB Commercial. They have a LOT of debt, and they were trying to restructure by replacing the debt people already held with less debt of a higher caliber. Carl Icahn didn't like that, and the court agreed with him. It may be tough to be an independent company in this market, but at least we don't have billions of dollars of debt. Now they're looking for another way to restructure. Maybe they'll start by spending only what they have to spend--there's a novel idea!
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