Home for the Holidays

As the year winds down toward the holidays, I want to remind people that there's one last push left for the real estate market.  Although fewer people look for property during this season, those who do are generally very motivated.  And, while sellers often don't want to have their homes subject to showings near the holidays, the truth is that some homes never look better than when they are decorated for the season.  There is a weather factor, of course, and much less daylight, but the aroma of baked goods and a display of festive decorations will often do a lot to make a house seem like you want it to be your new home.

The same principle applies to the financing and closing side of a transaction.  Even though people generally miss more working days, and parties and vacations can slow down the wheels of commerce, there is usually a strong motivation to clean off desks at the end of the year, and fewer files that have to be processed.  The tax issues involved can often lend a sense of urgency also, since many times there is a big incentive to close in one year or the next, and many jobs that begin at the first of the new year.

So, before you stop reading the Open House section of the paper, and trolling the internet for interesting homes, take a long look at your goals, and think about whether you can accomplish in less time and with less competition (and maybe even for a lower price) what otherwise will be left until spring.  Maybe a new home is the best present of all!

Rates Are Creeping Up

Here's a shout out to all those buyers out there who are waiting to be sure that real estate prices have hit bottom:  You may succeed in buying when prices have passed the bottom, but you may lose on rates.  Although the Fed has signaled that it won't be raising its rates any time soon, the mortgage rates are more creatures of supply and demand, as well as bank appetites for new loans.  Rates also tend to follow a seasonal pattern--lowest at election time (what a surprise!), and higher in the busiest spring buying season).

 I get rates sent to me on a weekly basis, and it's clear that they are headed up.  If you have waited this long to buy, don't make the mistake of continuing to wait.  They may go back down in the fall, but, by then, prices will have risen.  Buyers have increasingly begun to think of the cost of housing as the cost of the monthly payment, since that matters far more to them than the actual price of the home at any given time.  Not only are mortgage rates heading higher, but insurance and taxes have risen in most places as well.  Buy now, or regret it later!

The Tide is Turning

Probably most of you think that prices in real estate are dropping, with no end in sight.  I would certainly think so as well, if I went by what I read in the national press.  That's why I found it so interesting to look at our numbers for the region for the last quarter of 2011. 

Prices in the New Haven area went up 0.7% for the last quarter of 2011 versus the last quarter of 2010, and the number of sales went up 2.8% for the same period.  While that might not seem like much of a jump, it must be compared to the impression people have that prices are falling.  It's not apples to apples--it measures the total sales against the total sales, not the same houses being transferred each year--but it's a good indicator that the bottom of the market may well have come and gone.  When both prices and units rise, it's not too likely that one of the trends is an aberration.  Prices may not jump, and there may be a few hiccups involving taxes and financing, but the fundamentals are there, and we should see some of the rewards this year. 

If you are interested in seeing all the statistics yourself, please check our website at http://www.hpearce.com/.

On the Campaign Trail

I was invited this noontime to a lunch for women business owners with Linda McMahon, the U.S. Senate candidate.  We had a very nice meal at Cave a Vin, a new wine bar on State Street in New Haven.  Ms. McMahon is doing a listening tour of the state to hear what problems women businesses are having in the current economic climate.  Several things emerged as themes:  the cost of governmental regulation compliance; taxes; health care costs; and, most of all, the sad state of the economy.  The last item comes down to jobs, of course, and is most evident in what sector?  You guessed it--real estate.  It was surprising how much effect real estate has on the business fortunes of firms in other lines of work.  Real estate matters to everyone. 

It was also clear that many of the businesses represented were not making money at the present time.  Some owners were not paying themselves (this was more common than I would ever have guessed).  Others were retooling their firms, and their skills, to find new and different ways to attract revenues.  Those in retail spoke often about the lack of disposable income among their patrons. 

We didn't expect any immediate or easy answers, and we didn't get them.  To her credit, Ms. McMahon made no campaign promises, took no pot shots at incumbents, and seemed really to be there to listen and learn.  We all learned, and the enduring message we took away was that women needed to be cooperative and help each other succeed.  That is something that men should be able to buy into as well!

It's That Time of Year Again

Every year I write the same thing at this season, because every year it's true: the best time to buy real estate is between Halloween and Thanksgiving. Why is that? Because that's when sellers are most likely to accept an offer that makes a transaction either possible or particularly enticing to the buyer. As the weather gets colder, and thoughts of heating oil, plowing driveways, and holiday hiatuses on open houses and offers creep in, sellers weigh, as they should, the costs of carrying a property through the winter (for that is most likely what they will end up doing, if they don't sell by Thanksgiving) against the reality of an offer that is less than they want to accept. In addition, there's no guarantee that prices will even go up in the spring, and a outside chance that values could decline over the quiet months. As a further inducement, some sellers have tax reasons that make closing before the end of the year important or at least profitable. Although some people say that tax considerations could change with a new Congress, I think most would agree that uncertainty generally doesn't favor waiting when one is talking about the chances of taxes going either up or down. Even the economic news, which has seesawed over the past year, should make one cautious about holding out for better times.

This year, with so much inventory on the market, and so little time before the holiday season, it's especially important to consider pricing properties at levels that are not just correct, but compelling. Stand out from the crowd with a price that entices, and get your property sold while others just sit. And do it before the first flakes of snow hit the ground!

Tenant Fit-up Issues

Today our Commercial Department, along with Petra Construction, hosted a panel to teach the ins and outs of tenant fit-up costs, procedures, time lines, and taxes. Tony Santore from Beers Hammerman was our guest accountant.

We had a good turnout, and the group asked lots of questions. It's a big issue for us, since many deals now fall apart over the costs of tenant fit-up. The big lessons: Most people don't start early enough, or leave enough time; he who has the cash is king, and there's never been a better time to build; learning the tax ramifications, and getting your accountant involved early in the process, can save you a lot of money; and Realtors, developers, and construction professionals should all work together, even before the land is purchased or the lease is signed.

After the panel, guests were treated to two presentations, one on BIM (a new way to visualize the space before it's built) and the other on estimating. All agreed that it was a great morning, and those of us in the real estate business look forward to helping our clients understand the questions to ask, and when to ask them.